569
FXUS63 KOAX 252320
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, WITH A CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS WEEK, WITH SOME LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE PLAINS NEXT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS FOR
THESE STORMS, BUT MUCH OF THE REGION HAS A 40% OR GREATER
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME POINT FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
MUCH OF THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED FILTERED SUNSHINE AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT MODERATE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING, AND IT WILL GET PRETTY CHILLY
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND
FLIRTING WITH SINGLE DIGITS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN THIN AND WINDS
BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT (MAINLY IN VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NE
AND WEST CENTRAL IA).
ZOOMING OUT A BIT, THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A DEEP LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA, WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, AND AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY, THE RESULT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERALLY CONFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AIDING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OUT OF THE WEST,
AND THE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE
AND SOME WARM ADVECTION. THUS, EXPECT MONDAY TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 40S WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST. THE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS PLUS A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY HIGHS. AS
WE GET INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
JET TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND PROBABLY CLIPPING THE LOCAL AREA WITH
A COLD FRONT AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AS THERE IS VERY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LOW...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA.
THIS LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO DRIFTING EAST
AND TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM OF
INTEREST GIVEN PROLONGED ACCESS TO MOISTURE (OWING TO SLOW
FORWARD MOTION), AND A LIKELIHOOD TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT WE SHOULD NOTE AT THIS TIME, THAT THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS LARGELY DISCONNECTED FROM THE PRIMARY
JET STREAM AXIS TEND TO BE POORLY PREDICTED IN TERMS OF EXACT
TIMING AND TRACK. AS IT STANDS, THERE IS ALSO THE FACTOR OF
RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON THE FRINGES OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. BUT WITH THAT IN MIND, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF COLD RAIN OR SNOW, AND THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. JUST DON'T TRUST ANY
SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE KICKER FOR THE FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM IS THE TRANSITION TO A
WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN THAT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALSO FEATURE A SECONDARY
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WHICH COULD KICK OUT 48 HOURS AFTER THE
FIRST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AT 10 DAYS
OUT...JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR NOW, AND WE'LL SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE HOLDING ON FOR ABOUT AN HOUR
MORE, THOUGH AT SLOWER SPEEDS THAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT 20
KTS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND WEAKENING WINDS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OVERNIGHT TO BE LARGELY OUT OF THE WEST WITH SOME VARIANCE
BETWEEN 250 AND 280 DEGREES. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, THOSE
DIRECTIONS WILL SETTLE ON BEING SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD REMAIN
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page