539
FXUS63 KOAX 261046 CCA
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO KEY MESSAGES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
440 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
50S MONDAY, TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ICE BREAK UP AND ICE JAMMING ON AREA RIVERS. IF AN ICE JAM
DEVELOPS, RIVERA MAY RISE QUICKLY AND MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ON MONDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TRACE UP TO 2
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND TIMING, WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WHERE SKY COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER, AND A MORE
NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ALREADY HAVE BECOME
MORE WESTERLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND EXPECT LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND THOUGH IT PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT, UNSURE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION, THERMAL TROUGH AT H9
AND H8, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS,
GENERALLY LOW-MID 30S FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EASTWARD. AREAS
WEST OF US81 IN NEBRASKA WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS LOWER 40S. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
COOL AS WINDS BACK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. CLEARING SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT ADIABATIC COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS VORTEX MOVES EAST OF
HUDSON BAY AND ALLOWS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
SHEAR SIDE OF EASTERN CANADA VORTEX, THUS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL DAYS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM- UP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NBM MEAN FOR MONDAY, WITH
LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MID TO UPPER 40S
FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. EDGED TOWARD NBM 75
PERCENTILE FOR TUESDAY, WITH LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, GIVEN DRY GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUPERADIABTIC
WARMING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
HE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON MONDAY, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-18 MPH AND GUSTS 22-30 MPH. WHERE AREAS WHERE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20-25% AND WILL EDGE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. WILL HOLD OFF HOISTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW. WINDS ABATE AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE ON
TUESDAY, EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS
THAT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT. IF AN ICE JAM DEVELOPS, THE
RIVER MAY RISE QUICKLY AND MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHES THE AREA AS THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, THUS DROPPED TEMPERATURES BACK INTO GENERALLY THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON THURSDAY WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING, WITH LOW TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE PLATTE
RIVER IN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS- NEBRASKA AND IOWA- MISSOURI STATE LINES WHERE
INCREASING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LATE THURSDAY, CUT-OFF UPPER BEGINS TO DRAG ITSELF EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAIN SLIGHT TIMING AND H5 LOW
CENTER TRACK IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BUT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
FAVORING MORE SOUTHERN TRACK DEPICTED BY EC/CMC. WITH THIS
SCENARIO, CLOSE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. INCREASING BROAD SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY
DAWN AND WITH WARM NOST PERSISTING AT H9-H8 COULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY THUS THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SURFACE GLAZING OR ICING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH LOCATION OF DOMINATE H5 CENTER, WITH
GFS DEPICTING DOUBLE H5 CENTER SHEARED BETWEEN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MORE OPEN WAVE, WITH EC/CMC DEVELOPING
MORE BAROTROPIC CLOSE UPPER LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE KANSAS-
OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE LATTER
SCENARIO WILL KEEP MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND AS HAS BEEN OFTEN THE CASE THIS
WINTER, BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
UPPER LOW IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, AND ASSOCIATED WITH
CYCLONIC BRANCH OF WARM CONVEYER BELT/TROWAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
A QUIET TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS, WITH
WIND GUSTS HAVING DIED DOWN AND SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KOFK TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY AT ITS PEAK AS WELL, WITH THE REMAINING
MID/UPPER CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING OUT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL WAVER OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW EVENING -- ESPECIALLY AT KOMA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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