758
FXUS63 KOAX 261701
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 50S MONDAY, TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR ICE BREAK UP AND ICE JAMMING ON AREA RIVERS. IF
AN ICE JAM DEVELOPS, RIVERS MAY RISE QUICKLY AND MINOR
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ON MONDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TRACE UP TO 2
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND TIMING, WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WHERE SKY COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER, AND A MORE
NORTHWEST WIND PERSISTS, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ALREADY
HAVE BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND THOUGH IT
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT, UNSURE IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OFFSET WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION, THERMAL
TROUGH AT H9 AND H8, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA. LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS, GENERALLY LOW-MID 30S FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
EASTWARD. AREAS WEST OF US81 IN NEBRASKA WILL EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS LOWER 40S. TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS WINDS BACK AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
ADIABATIC COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS VORTEX MOVES EAST OF
HUDSON BAY AND ALLOWS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC
SHEAR SIDE OF EASTERN CANADA VORTEX, THUS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL DAYS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NBM MEAN FOR MONDAY, WITH
LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MID TO UPPER 40S
FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. EDGED TOWARD NBM 75
PERCENTILE FOR TUESDAY, WITH LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, GIVEN DRY GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUPERADIABATIC
WARMING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S. HE GRADIENT
FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON MONDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 12-18
MPH AND GUSTS 22-30 MPH. WHERE AREAS WHERE MORE WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 20-25%
AND WILL EDGE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA. WILL HOLD OFF HOISTING ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WINDS ABATE AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE ON TUESDAY, EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS
THAT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT. IF AN ICE JAM DEVELOPS, THE
RIVER MAY RISE QUICKLY AND MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHES THE AREA AS THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, THUS DROPPED TEMPERATURES BACK INTO GENERALLY THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON THURSDAY WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING, WITH LOW TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE PLATTE
RIVER IN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE KANSAS- NEBRASKA AND IOWA- MISSOURI STATE LINES WHERE
INCREASING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LATE THURSDAY, CUT-OFF UPPER BEGINS TO DRAG ITSELF EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAIN SLIGHT TIMING AND H5 LOW
CENTER TRACK IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BUT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
FAVORING MORE SOUTHERN TRACK DEPICTED BY EC/CMC. WITH THIS
SCENARIO, CLOSE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. INCREASING BROAD SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY
DAWN AND WITH WARM NOSE PERSISTING AT H9-H8 COULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY THUS THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SURFACE GLAZING OR ICING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH LOCATION OF DOMINATE H5 CENTER, WITH
GFS DEPICTING DOUBLE H5 CENTER SHEARED BETWEEN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MORE OPEN WAVE, WITH EC/CMC DEVELOPING
MORE BAROTROPIC CLOSE UPPER LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE KANSAS-
OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE LATTER
SCENARIO WILL KEEP MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND AS HAS BEEN OFTEN THE CASE THIS
WINTER, BETTER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
UPPER LOW IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, AND ASSOCIATED WITH
CYCLONIC BRANCH OF WARM CONVEYER BELT/TROWAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...CA
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