610
FXUS63 KOAX 262309
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
509 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 50S MONDAY, TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR ICE BREAK UP AND ICE JAMMING ON AREA RIVERS. IF
AN ICE JAM DEVELOPS, RIVERS MAY RISE QUICKLY AND MINOR
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ON MONDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TRACE UP TO 2
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND TIMING, WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN, MAIN
FEATURE OF NOTE WAS A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER CA WHICH WILL
APPROACH US LATER IN THE WEEK AND BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
REMAINED UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH VARIOUS POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LEADS TO
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPING, THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. IN ADDITION, DECENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW US TO TAP INTO SOME
25 TO 35 KT WINDS ALOFT, DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU LOOK AT
(26.15Z RAP IS PROBABLY MOST AGGRESSIVE), AND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. THERE WAS SOME
CONVERSATION ABOUT ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, BUT CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES ONLY SPOTTY AREAS REACHING CRITERIA FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR OR TWO (MAINLY NORTHEAST NE). IN ADDITION, 26.12Z HREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF REACHING CRITERIA NEAR THE
NE/SD BORDER. HOWEVER, IF OTHER GUIDANCE STARTS TO TREND TOWARD
THE AFOREMENTIONED 26.15Z RAP, WE MAY END UP NEEDING A RED FLAG
WARNING. REGARDLESS OF HEADLINE, DEFINITELY A DAY TO PRACTICE
FIRE SAFETY AND AVOID BURNING.
THE WARM WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S. TUESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS
WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING A RETURN TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. GIVEN THE WARM WEATHER, WE COULD SEE SOME
INCREASED ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAMS. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT STILL LOOK TO GET
BELOW FREEZING WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT ICE MOVEMENT.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, THAT CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER CA SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NE/KS BORDER AT
THIS TIME, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN VARIOUS GUIDANCE ON
EXACT TIMING TRACK. THE EPS AND GEPS ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY A
LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK, WITH SOME
MEMBERS EVEN KEEPING US COMPLETELY DRY. IN CONTRAST THE GEFS MEAN IS
FARTHER NORTH, BUT EVEN SEVERAL OF ITS MEMBERS MISS US COMPLETELY.
AS OF NOW, WE'RE LOOKING AT ABOUT A 30 TO 50% CHANCE SOUTH OF AN
EAST-WEST LINE THROUGH OMAHA, WITH CHANCES QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO
THE NORTH. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, THE WARM AIR IN PLACE WOULD
FAVOR MOSTLY RAIN, BUT SOME WINTRY PRECIP COULD MIX IN AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING (NIGHT TIME PRECIP WOULD MEAN A WINTRY
MIX). SO BOTTOM LINE, WE'RE HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTH- CENTRAL US TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE SEE ANY WINTRY IMPACTS FROM IT, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL WE GET MISSED COMPLETELY. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH THE
PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX SUGGESTS ONLY A 5-10%
CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES MAY CLIP US SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
(20% CHANCE) AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDE BY TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, AS IT WILL DEPEND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ON HOW THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM PANS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH WINDS LARGELY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS
OR LESS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING GUSTY WINDS THAT DEVELOP OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST MID-TO-LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST TO THE NORTHWEST AT
KOFK. THOSE GUSTS SHOULD DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page