078
FXUS63 KOAX 271114
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
514 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST TODAY DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- THE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S, GENERALLY 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY, WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARMTH COMES LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS
20% TO 25% THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH CREATES VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD BE DOWN AROUND 20% FROM
NELIGH TO ALBION, THUS VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS, BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. THUS,
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUANCE FOR NOW, AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A
LOOK IF HUMIDITY MIGHT GET SLIGHTLY LOWER. WHILE THE HIGH TEMPS
MAY SEEM WARM, THE BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER. RECORD VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S THIS DAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHEAST NE.
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER, RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 MPH, WHICH WILL ALSO
HELP ALLEVIATE ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE WARMTH CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST AREAS, EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHEAST NE WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST, BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING WARMER, AND THUS WE HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SNOW IN OUR AREA, WITH ONLY RAIN
EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I80 THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARL FRIDAY, AND
THEN TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT, AND SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION. MEANWHILE, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA
COULD SEE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN, WHICH WOULD BE
ESPECIALLY WELCOME SINCE WE'VE CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE A SNOW
DROUGHT THIS WINTER. THE CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN
IS RUNNING ABOUT 20% RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE NBM. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS NOW THAT WE'RE GETTING A GOOD SAMPLING
ON THE WEST COAST, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE POPS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S CONTINUING.
LOOKING FAR AHEAD, LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE FIRST WEEK IN
FEBRUARY MAY BE TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL, AND THE 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS VALID FEB 1-9TH REFLECT THIS.
PRECIPITATION THAT FAR OUT IS OFTEN HARD TO PREDICT, AND WHILE
THE CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION,
THE ACTUAL MODELS ARE NOT SO GENEROUS.
ONE OTHER CONCERN REGARDING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
THAT COULD ALSO LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE BOTH THE
ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 50S COULD HELP TRIGGER THE BREAKUP, BUT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT, THAT'S
SOMEWHAT LIMITING. OUR CURRENT ICE JAM INDICATOR FOR THE PLATTE
RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN THE ELEVATED CATEGORY, AND THE RAIN COMING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD HELP FLUSH THINGS JUST A BIT,
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT EXCESSIVE. IT'S
IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY KNOWN ICE JAMS IN
THE EITHER THE PLATTE OR ELKHORN BASINS AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS, WE'LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON RIVER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEK. FOR THE EXISTING ICE JAMS IN THE MISSOURI RIVER, IF
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES HELP MOVE THAT ALONG, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THERE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE, BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 14 TO
26 KNOTS 17-00Z, THEN WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS BEYOND 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page