383
FXUS63 KOAX 272310
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS.
- ICE JAM FORMATION MAY OCCUR IN THE ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER
BASINS DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE-80.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE HUDSON
BAY REGION AND A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA. AS A RESULT,
MUCH OF OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. GIVEN THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
WILL FEATURE CALM CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH HAS LED TO AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT, PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS.
THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS, IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE MID 40S AS OF 12:30 PM, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AT 25 TO 30 MPH AND RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
ANTICIPATED IN NORTHEAST NE, WHERE ISOLATED AREAS MAY DIP JUST UNDER
20%. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE OPTED OUT OF ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING,
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY MEET CRITERIA FOR 1-2 HOURS IN LOCALIZED
AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN ANTELOPE, BOONE AND MADISON COUNTIES. DESPITE
FALLING SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA, INCREASED CAUTION IS ADVISED.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY;
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 30-40%
RANGE, WITH GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHEAST NE.
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID-50S, WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE BUT STILL BELOW RECORD HIGHS (WHICH RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RAISES CONCERNS
FOR ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER BASINS.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP. THE LOWER PLATTE RIVER ICE JAM RISK
INDICATOR REMAINS ELEVATED, DUE TO THE ICE THICKNESS AND
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY AND BEYOND)
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN CA LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, TRACKING ACROSS TX/OK. THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW, WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS PEAK NEAR 70% ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER,
DECREASING NORTHWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE-80.
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON THURSDAY BEFORE DIPPING SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ON FRIDAY. NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST NE. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME EITHER. ABOUT 25% OF GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. IF A
WINTRY MIX DOES OCCUR, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE NBM INDICATED A 40-60% CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING HALF AN INCH, WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR AN INCH IN AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO
NEAR ZERO BY THE NE/SD BORDER.
ICE JAM CONCERNS WILL NEED CLOSE MONITORING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
COMBINATION OF PROLONGED ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER ICE BREAKUP.
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BETTER MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH CURRENT POPS PEAKING AT 15% NEAR THE
NE/SD BORDER. LOOKING AHEAD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CA
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