249
FXUS63 KOAX 280923
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
- ICE JAM FORMATION MAY OCCUR IN THE ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER
BASINS DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
15 TO 20 DEGREES NORMAL. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, BUT REMAINING BELOW RECORD VALUES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH, AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 25 TO 35
PERCENT, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN NORTHEAST NE, CONTRIBUTING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THERE. OTHERWISE, SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY BE SUNNY, AND OVERALL IT'S GOING TO BE AN
OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THE END OF JANUARY.
THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DROP HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 50S, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH, AND WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH, CONTRIBUTING TO ANOTHER OVERALL VERY
PLEASANT DAY.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE THE IMPENDING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS BRINGS MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA, AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF, WITH PRECIPITATION NOT MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NE/SD BORDER. THE RAIN COULD BEGIN NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT, ENDS BY
NOON ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA THURSDAY EVENING. AND THIS MOSTLY
FALLS AS RAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF HOUR OF FREEZING
RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS FRIDAY MORNING.
AND RIGHT NOW, WHILE THERE ISN'T ANY SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST,
IT'S SOMETHING WE'RE WATCHING AS SOME OF THE GFS AND EC
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
PROBABILISTIC WSSI. WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE TRENDS WITH
NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE FROM ALBION TO SIOUX CITY, TO ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH FORECAST ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DESPITE
OUR WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
COOLING WELL BELOW ZERO, THUS FROST DEPTH IS STILL RUNNING
AROUND 8" AT OUR OFFICE. THE RAIN WILL BE VERY WELCOME, BUT A
LOT OF IT IS LIKELY TO RUN OFF GIVEN THE FROZEN GROUND STILL IN
PLACE.
BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S, AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AND
THEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, HIGHS FRIDAY ARE STILL FORECAST INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S, AGAIN, STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ABOUT A 50/50
CHANCE THAT THE GROUNDHOG SEES HIS SHADOW ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S,
GENERALLY BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW.
REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL ICE JAMS, OUR ICE JAM INDICATOR FOR THE
PLATTE RIVER IS STILL ELEVATED FOR THIS WEEK. THE MILD TEMPS IN
THE 50S THIS WEEK COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME ICE MOVEMENT, ALTHOUGH
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DO DIP BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT. WE ARE
NOT AWARE OF ANY ISSUES AT THIS TIME, BUT WE'RE WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ANY ICE MOVEMENT IN THE ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER
BASINS. THE ICE JAMS THAT ARE IN THE MISSOURI RIVER SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WHEN THEY BREAK FREE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY'LL TAPER OFF TUESDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...CA
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