409
FXUS63 KOAX 290423
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1023 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- ICE JAM FORMATION MAY OCCUR IN THE ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVER
BASINS DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON - WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A NICE VIEW OF THE CURRENT EXTENT OF
THE REMAINING SNOW FROM THE EVENT A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSOURI, AND FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST, WITH WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BELT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A REX-BLOCK-LIKE PATTERN
WITH A PINCHED OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE
SET UP OVER TOP THE LOW FORCING NORTHWARD THE POLAR JET AND
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS IS WHAT IS
LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
HIGHS TODAY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. OUR
COLDEST AREA WILL BE DOWN NEAR FALLS CITY WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GROUND HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WHILE IT STICKS
AROUND.
TODAY WE ARE SEEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATE AN
ENHANCEMENT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ACTING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE 60S. THIS NORTHWESTERLY SURGE
IN WINDS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE COOLING OVERNIGHT DROPPING US BACK
INTO THE 20S DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE LOW FINALLY GETTING PICKED BACK UP BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS
WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING US TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW
50S. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE'LL START TO SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROWAL AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW.
-MCCOY
LONG TERM (THURSDAY - TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA PUTTING US IN WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE THE
PERFECT POSITION FOR A LATE JANUARY SNOWMAKER... HOWEVER, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RAIN WILL
BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
RAIN MAY START AS EARLY AS 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT THE PRIMARY WINDOW COMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NE AND SOUTHWESTERN
IA. RAIN MAY (20-30% CHANCE) CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
AS A TROWAL WRAPS AROUND THE LOW, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY NOON. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NE AND
SOUTHWESTERN IA WITH A WIDE SWATH OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-
80. TOTALS WILL DECREASE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS
NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY (10-15% CHANCE), THERE ARE SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS
(NAMELY THE 12Z NAM) THAT HAVE A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING, AROUND THE TIME OF MINIMUM DIURNAL HEATING, ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NE AND SOUTHWESTERN IA. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SNOW
WOULD BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD OUTPACE THE MELTING RATE, LEADING
TO SOME ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE
10S AND LOW 20S). THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE MORE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
-CAROTHERS
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS, OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS/MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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