995
FXUS63 KOAX 291731
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THE WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER BASINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
ANOTHER MILD, WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY IS FORECAST WITH SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE. AN
OUTSTANDING DAY TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY SUCH A WARM DAY FOR
END OF JANUARY.
MODELS ARE STILL VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION ONTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. WE'LL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
THURSDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST NE, BUT INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, AND THEN END BEFORE NOON ON FRIDAY.
BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY, IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER
MILD, WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
WHERE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR. THIS BRINGS GENEROUS
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS WHICH COULD MEASURE ONE QUARTER TO AS
MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAIN, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, RAIN CHANCES
LIKELY DO NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NE/SD BORDER. DESPITE
THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, NIGHTTIME LOWS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DIP BELOW ZERO, THUS THE FROST DEPTH IS STILL RUNNING 7-8
INCHES, AND THEREFORE, A LOT OF THIS RAIN IS GOING TO RUN OFF
INTO CREEKS AND RIVERS.
THERE'S ALSO A CONCERN THAT DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT, COMBINED
WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING WITHIN A TROWAL REGION ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR. THIS MODEL IS LIKELY OVERDONE, BUT
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EC ENSEMBLES THAT ALSO SUGGEST A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE SOUTH OF I80 AS WELL. BOTH THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES KEEP IT ALL RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR THE MOST PART, WHICH
SHOULD HELP ANY SNOWFALL TO MELT ON THE VERY WET GROUND,
RESULTING IN JUST A VERY COLD RAIN. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL RATES
COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERWHELM ANY MELTING RESULTING ALLOWING
FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1/2". OUR DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OUR PROBABILISTIC FORECAST DOES SHOW A
40-60% OF AT LEAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA, AND ABOUT A
5% CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOW FROM EAST OF BEATRICE TO NEBRASKA CITY
TO RED OAK. ALL OF THIS CAN BE FOUND IN DETAIL ON OUR WINTER
WEATHER WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/OAX/WINTER. BOTTOM LINE, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO TAKE A VERY HARD LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SNOWFALL WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, IT WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
A VERY MILD WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA
EACH DAY. GET OUTDOORS AND ENJOY A WARM START TO EARLY FEBRUARY.
THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, SO A DECENT CHANCE THE GROUNDHOG WILL NOT SEE HIS
SHADOW. LORE SUGGESTS AN EARLY SPRING IN THAT CASE, AND GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THIS HAS BEEN THE LEAST SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD
FOR THE LOCAL AREA, PERHAPS THAT'S APPROPRIATE.
THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NE/SD
BORDER REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE RECENT
STRETCH OF SEVERAL WARM DAYS, WE DID GET A REPORT THAT THERE
WAS SOME ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE LOUP RIVER WEST OF COLUMBUS
YESTERDAY EVENING. THIS IS OFTEN A PRECURSOR TO BIGGER THINGS
HAPPENING IN THE LOUP/PLATTE RIVERS. WE HAVE NOT HEARD ANY
ADDITIONAL DETAILS OVERNIGHT. OUR HYDROLOGIST WILL BE COORDINATING
WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS AFTER SUNRISE ABOUT ANY POTENTIAL NEW ICE
MOVEMENT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE
JAMS COULD EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT, BUT NOTHING IS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS CARRYING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 5 KTS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE
PERIOD WITH THOSE DIRECTIONS TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE WIND SHIFT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MOVING IN AFTER 10Z AT KLNK, ONLY REACHING KOMA CLOSER TO
16/17Z. BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING IN LOWER CEILINGS (AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS) TO
KLNK AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KOMA WHERE LESS RAIN IS FORECAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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