152
FXUS63 KOAX 301119
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
519 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT ENDING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MIX WITH THE RAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER BASINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
THE LEADING BAND OF SPRINKLES EXTENDING FROM EAST OF COLUMBUS
THROUGH EAST OF COUNCIL BLUFFS IS EVAPORATING AS IT PUSHES
NORTH THIS MORNING, AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THIS BAND AFTER
6AM.
THE HRRR ISN'T SHOWING MUCH ELSE FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AND IN FACT, THE HRRR SUGGESTS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AT ALL, WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST NE FROM NEAR GRAND
ISLAND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD FALLS CITY. THIS INITIAL BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ALSO WEAKEN
AS IT DOES. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITHING THE RAIN,
BUT AS IT PUSHES NORTH, THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OF FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THOSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO FREEZING OR ABOVE. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL ICING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL SEE SPOTTY PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG/SOUTH OF I80, WITH ONLY ABOUT 20% OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY,
THEN POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 40-60% ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE RAIN LIKELY DOESN'T MAKE IT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE NE/SD BORDER REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
RAIN/SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING SOUTH OF I80, BUT
AGAIN, RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN A COLUMBUS,
NE TO HARLAN, IA LINE. AND THERE COULD BE ISOLATED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST IA TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ENDING BY 6 AM FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS COULD
STILL BE ONGOING FROM FALLS CITY, NE TO CLARINDA, IA FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND THAT. THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
THAT THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW AS IT ENDS, BUT REALLY ONLY AN
HOUR OR TWO FOR THAT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATIONS ENDS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX DO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S, SO
FEEL THAT IF THERE IS A WINTRY MIX, IT WILL GENERALLY MELT.
THUS, NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, IT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AND THEN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO NORTHEAST NE, BUT IT ALSO
USHERS IN COOLER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 30S IN NORTHEAST NE, AND THE MID 40S
ALONG/SOUTH OF I80, BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTHEAST NE EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
REGARDING ICE JAMS, IT APPEARS THAT THE ICE JAM THAT WAS IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER NEAR GIFFORD POINT BROKE FREE LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING. AND WE HAVE HEARD NO NEW INFORMATION ABOUT ICE MOVEMENT
IN THE PLATTE OR ELKHORN RIVER BASINS. WITH THE MILD, WELL ABOVE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL BE WATCHING RIVER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KLNK 17-22Z. THE BAND
OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE KOMA AREA IS EVAPORATING
IN THE DRY AIR AND NO EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WE EVENTUALLY DO
TRANSITION TO RAIN DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA 21-00Z, THEN ENDING
BY 07-09Z. SOME OF THE NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL
COULD POTENTIALLY END THE RAIN CHANCES MUCH SOONER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...DEWALD
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
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