195
FXUS63 KOAX 030525
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY (70-100% CHANCE) TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURRING FROM WEST-
TO-EAST. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THOUGH SEVERAL INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE (5-10%) OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
- TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 50 MPH LIKELY (> 70% CHANCE). THE STRONG WINDS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, RESULTING IN VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, AT THE LEAST. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
- A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN TO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BOUNCING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 2 PM. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-30 MPH HAVE LED TO AREAS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON.
A PUSH OF MOIST, SOUTHERLY AIR, AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW. THE BEST
CHANCE BEING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 35 MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASING TO OVER 50 PERCENT WILL QUELL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREDIBLY
STRONG WINDS, RAIN, SNOW, AND PERHAPS A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK OFF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION, GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WON'T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WEAK SHEAR
INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH. WHILE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE, THE BETTER FORCING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION FILLS BACK IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE TROWAL DRIVES
THE DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THE REGION. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE COLD NORTHERN AIR
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ENSEMBLE MEANS PUT SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 30-40 MPH, GUSTING 40-50 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 90TH PERCENTILE STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTS TO 60+ MPH. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COMPOUNDING ISSUES WITH THE WIND, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR TRANSITIONING RAIN TO SNOW,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING, MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
HAVE LITTLE CONSENSUS IN EXACTLY WHERE HEAVY SNOW MIGHT FALL.
OVERALL, AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1-3" GENERALLY, SOME MODELS INDICATING
POCKETS OF 4-6". INITIALLY, SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY, AND WET WITH
SLR'S AROUND 5:1, GRADUALLY DRYING TO AROUND 12:1 BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW, WITH WINDS AS STRONG
AS 40+ MPH, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW. PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOK VERY POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP. DEPENDING ON
TRANSITION TIMING AND PRECIP MOVEMENT, THE TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES COULD BE IMPACTED. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SET UP REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES AND IMPENDING WATCHES, ADVISORIES, AND/OR
WARNINGS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO AFFECT
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (40-60% CHANCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
A BUSY SET OF TAFS ARE SET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, STARTING WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AT FL014-FL016 OF 45-51 KTS, RESULTING IN
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 12 TO 13Z. CEILINGS TRENDS THEN
BECOME THE STORY AS KOFK DIPS TO MVFR FROM 12-17Z, BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON, ALL THREE TAF SITES GO TO MVFR CEILINGS,
DIPPING BELOW FL020 AROUND 00-01Z, AND THEN BECOME IFR BY 03Z.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z (25% CHANCE), BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ITS PERSISTENCE AND LOCATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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