105
FXUS63 KOAX 040524
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TUESDAY (100% CHANCE) TURNING TO SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON - NIGHT. AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES LIKELY,
LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE UP TO 6 INCHES.
- VERY STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THIS WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MEANS BLIZZARD/WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE MOST SNOW.
- BOTH THE SNOW AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY (60-80%
CHANCE) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF I-80.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 440 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS A DEVELOPING POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT
OVER THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING UP INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. WE'LL SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH, STALLING ACROSS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE'LL SEE
A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE MORNING AND RAIN PICKING UP
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
BRINGING IN COLDER AIR CAUSING RAIN TO THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST
MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING, STALLING THE SURFACE LOW FOR A FEW
HOURS AND LEADING TO A PIVOT IN THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. AS THIS PIVOT OCCURS, WE'LL SEE A BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN VS SNOW? AN EARLIER
TRANSITION (ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LOW)
WOULD MEAN A GREATER AMOUNT OF THIS HEAVIER BAND FALLING AS SNOW
VS RAIN. RIGHT NOW WE'VE GONE WITH A MORE MODEST FORECAST FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING ANTECEDENT
WARM CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING DENDRITES TO FRACTURE,
LEADING TO COMPACTION. HOWEVER MUCH SNOW FALLS, IT WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MEASURE DUE TO THE POWERFUL WINDS.
DESPITE MODEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED, THE DAMAGING WINDS
ONGOING THROUGH MODERATE SNOWFALL PERIODS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR THIS REASON,
WE'VE GONE WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING IN THIS AREA, WHILE AREAS TO
THE WEST ARE ONLY UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO
FORECAST LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW. WE COULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF
THE BLIZZARD WARNING IF WE START TO SEE AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THE COMBINATION OF POWERFUL WINDS AND A WETTER, HEAVIER SNOW
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES. EVEN IN AREAS THAT DON'T SEE AS MUCH SNOW, THE SHEER
DURATION OF THE DAMAGING WINDS OVER SEVERAL HOURS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE IN AREAS, ESPECIALLY TO TREES
WEAKENED BY STORMS LAST SPRING/SUMMER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW
60 MPH AROUND DAYBREAK, AND FALLING BELOW 40 MPH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GET UP ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LESS SNOW.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 30 TO 34 DEGREES. WE
DIDN'T HAVE MUCH TIME TO DIG INTO THIS SYSTEM JUST YET DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY FORECAST, BUT THIS IS A
PERIOD TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IF TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE AND WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH OFK NOW MOST LIKELY
TO SEE TS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OMA STAYS JUST SOUTHEAST, BUT
COULD BE CLOSE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL EARLY BEFORE
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE STORMS AND BRINGS IFR CEILINGS AND
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY. SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP FOR MOST TOWARD
MID-DAY AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR CONDITIONS AT LNK, BUT RAIN AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE TRANSITION
OCCURS, EXPECT VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO MOVE IN WITH GUSTS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH SNOW WILL LEAD TO VISIBILITY UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION GOING FORWARD WILL BE EXACT TIMING OF THE
CHANGE TO SNOW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-033-034-043-044-050-051-065-066-078-
088-089.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page