666
FXUS63 KOAX 041129
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
529 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT (PEAKING AT 70-95%). PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
- STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND PEAK
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH
ARE LIKELY AND AT TIMES MAY GUST UP TO 65 MPH.
- FALLING SNOW WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA DANGEROUS.
- ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY (70-90%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY IS ALREADY
AT OUR DOORSTEP EARLY THIS MORNING. RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE 500 MB
LOW EXITING EASTERN COLORADO AND ENTERING WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, WE'VE ALREADY SEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, DEVELOP AS AN INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
ADVANCES AHEAD OF THIS LOW. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 600-700 J/KG
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IA, ALONG WITH PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 45 KTS OR GREATER AT
TIMES. THUS, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
HIGHLIGHT A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING SOME
SMALL HAIL AROUND DIME TO QUARTER SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL ONSET OF ANY RAIN OR STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE INITIALLY DELAYED DUE
TO A DRY SLOT MOVING IN. THIS IS CLEARLY SEEN WHEN LOOKING AT
HUMIDITY/MOISTURE CONTENT JUST ABOVE 850MB FROM THE RAP. SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW SATURATION AND SOME WEAK LIFT BELOW
THIS LAYER TOWARD THE SURFACE WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THUS, HAVE LEFT POPS GENERALLY AT 25% OR
LESS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SOME DRIZZLE
MENTIONS. SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE EVENTUALLY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE. AGAIN, A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER DUE TO THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY, EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS IMPACTFUL SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND THE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SFC LOW CENTER PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING AND THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING TIGHTER,
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTS AROUND 50 - 55 MPH WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE EPS AND GEFS SHOW MEAN WIND GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH BY 6Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS INDICATING PEAK GUSTS OF 65 MPH. THESE STRONG WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY LEAD TO POWER LINE DAMAGE, AND WILL BE
DANGEROUS TO ANY HIGH PROFILE MOTOR VEHICLES. AS A RESULT, HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TODAY TO 12
PM WEDNESDAY.
TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, THE CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, IN COMBINATION WITH THESE
STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS, WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, HAVE CONTINUED THE BLIZZARD WARNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHICH IS PRIMARILY WHERE OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE THE
HIGHEST AT AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. HOWEVER, IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
TO EMPHASIZE THAT AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL STILL
SEE NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF
MILE AT TIMES REGARDLESS OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS HAS LED TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEING ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING, WHERE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LESS. REGARDLESS, EXPECT TRAVEL TO BECOME DANGEROUS LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECASTING THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDER THESE TYPES OF WINDY
CONDITIONS IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, PRIMARILY DUE TO (1), THE WINDS BEING VERY STRONG WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO BLOW AROUND AND FRACTURE RESULTING IN SOME
COMPACTION, AND (2), WARM GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH MAY CAUSE SNOW TO
MELT INITIALLY AS IT HITS THE GROUND. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE AROUND 30-35 MPH BEFORE SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARRIVING TO OUR AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW. NBM CURRENTLY
HAS A WIDESPREAD 70-90% CHANCE FOR POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
A WARM UP WILL START TO SHAPE UP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S TO
MID 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD OWING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES EXPECTED, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS. LIFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT KOFK SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO IFR BY MID MORNING WITH MORE CONTINUOUS RAIN
DEVELOPING BY AROUND 19Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY 23Z.
MEANWHILE AT KOMA AND KLNK, CEILINGS HAVE INCREASED TO FL010-012
AS OF 11Z. THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONTINUOUS RAIN
DEVELOPING BY 18-19Z. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BY 01Z
AT KLNK AND 03Z AT KOMA WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT.
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 KT CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-033-034-043-044-050-051-065-066-078-
088-089.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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