549
FXUS63 KOAX 042330
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD POPS TONIGHT (PEAKING AT 70-95%). PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
- STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND PEAK
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH
ARE LIKELY AND AT TIMES MAY GUST UP TO 65 MPH.
- FALLING SNOW WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA DANGEROUS.
- ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY (60-90%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO FALL QUICKLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT'S SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS OF UP TO
5-7MB IN JUST TWO HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN EASTERN KANSAS.
FAIRBURY AND VALLEY EACH DROPPED 10F IN THE ONE HOUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS IT BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
ACROSS NEBRASKA, WIDESPREAD 40-60 KNOT GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
OFFSET 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KCMO. THAT LOW
IS DEEPENING QUICKLY AND EXPECTED TO HIT BOTTOM NEAR 980MB OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT AND ITS PARENT LOW PHASE AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SINCE NOON, KOAX RADAR HAS REALLY FILLED IN WITH RETURNS AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
AND THE SATURATION OF THE AIR UNDER 900 MB. SEVERE WEATHER DID
NOT MATERIALIZE THIS FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE PRIMARY
CONCERN GOING FORWARD WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS AND THE IMPACT
THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE WITH THE WIND'S HELP.
HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING NORTH TO ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE WHERE THE SNOW FORECAST HAS INCREASED A LITTLE
BIT AND TEMPS HAVE SLIPPED QUICKEST. REGARDLESS IF YOU FIND
YOURSELF IN A BLIZZARD WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TRAVEL AND INHOSPITABLE TO SPENDING TIME
OUTSIDE. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST OF GENERALLY 1-4" WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO VERIFY THANKS TO THE FRACTURING OF FLAKES AND THE
STRONG WINDS MAKING MEASUREMENT DIFFICULT. GENERALLY HAVE
LIMITED THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
IMPACTS.
WIND AND SNOW ARE CERTAINLY HIGH ON OUR LIST OF CONCERNS, BUT
ALSO HAVE BEEN GIVING SOME ATTENTION TO THE TIMING OF THE FLASH
FREEZE EXPECTED TO AREA ROADS. ALREADY AS OF 4PM, AIR
TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE SOME SNOW CAN BE FOUND ON NDOT HIGHWAY CAMERAS.
A QUICK PEEK AT ROAD TEMPS SHOW NUMBERS AT 35F OR ABOVE. AS THE
SUN SETS, ROADS WILL FREEZE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. HREF, NOTORIOUSLY SLOW TO PICK UP
ON BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, IS MAXING OUT AT ABOUT 60% CHANCE OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (VIS < .25 MI PLUS WSPD 35 MPH). BELIEVE
ODDS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT
THEIR STRIDE BETWEEN 6PM AND 6AM WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 50 TO
OVER 60MPH AT TIMES. EPPLEY HAS ONLY HAD 5 NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS OVER 60MPH IN ITS RECORDED HISTORY (POR SINCE 1970S).
WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (ABOVE ZERO) BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINTER HEADLINES BEGIN ENDING WEST TO EAST AT MIDNIGHT WITH THE
EASTERN COUNTIES' HEADLINES RUNNING UNTIL 6:00 AM WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. THE REDUCED
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPS PUSHING CLOSE TO
FREEZING AND SUNSHINE BEING REVEALED AFTER LUNCH WILL ONLY HELP
TO TURN OFF THE WORST OF THE BLOWING SNOW MACHINE. BLOWING SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE WORST WHERE THE SNOWFALL WAS GREATEST AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST (THIS VENN DIAGRAM WOULD HIGHLIGHT WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA).
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A TRANSIENT SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE ON THE RISE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
CUTOFF LOW AT H5 WILL PLOD EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR A LEE CYCLONE
WORKING ACROSS KANSAS, DRAWING A BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT ACROSS THE
STATE OF NEBRASKA. PRECIP CHANCES PEAK AT NEAR 60% ALONG THE
KS AND SD STATE LINES AND NEAR 90% ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER ON
THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY, BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW, BUT SHOULD THE FORECAST COOL A FEW DEGREES, SAY FROM
TONIGHT'S SNOW OVER-PERFORMING, IT COULD FALL MORE AS SNOW THAN
RAIN. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A COUPLE
INCHES BEFORE WRAPPING UP ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND WARMER. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MOST OF THE SLUSHY SNOW OF FRIDAY MORNING TO
QUICKLY MELT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR BY AT LEAST UNDER SATURDAY'S
SUNNY SKIES. FRIDAY'S TEMPS WILL STRIVE FOR A HIGH OF 40.
SATURDAY WILL MAKE A RUN AT 50 AND SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER YET.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL TRY TO DEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND PUSH TEMPS CLOSE TO 70F.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TAF SITES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST 50-60 KTS WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO
1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT OMA AND LNK. ONCE SNOW
EXITS, BLOWING SNOW COULD LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONTINUED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SNOW ENDS UP FALLING (CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND 1" AT OFK, 1-3"
AT LNK, AND 3-5" AT OMA). EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER, THOUGH 30-40 KT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-018-033-
034-044-051-066-089.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-
067-068-090>093.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ016-
017-030>032-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ043-
050-065-078-088.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page