694
FXUS63 KOAX 051006
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
406 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL ENDS THIS MORNING, BUT STRONG WINDS GUSTING FROM 35
TO 45 MPH MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
- NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
20-30% POPS IN THE MORNING. POPS INCREASE BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO AROUND 70- 90%. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
AN IMPRESSIVE, SFC LOW FEATURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM
OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM, THE 982 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA. WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW, SNOWFALL IS STARTING TO COME TO A GRADUAL END,
BUT WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE SFC LOW,
STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AT LEAST IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM. SEVERAL METAR SITES HAVE GUSTED CLOSE TO 65 MPH, MOST
NOTABLY KOMA WHICH REPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE GUST OF 64 MPH AT 0119Z.
WHILE SNOWFALL IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING, THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL STILL CREATE A RISK FOR BLOWING SNOW. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA, GIVEN THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. IF
OUT ON THE ROADS THIS MORNING, PLEASE TRAVEL SLOW AND WITH CAUTION.
THE STRONG, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE SOMETIME
AFTER 12-14Z, BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE NOON HOUR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD
THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME MELTING OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND HIGHS REACH THE 30-40F
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE COLORADO/ROCKIES AREA WITHIN A PARENT LONGWAVE TROF SEEN ACROSS
THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW THAT
WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND REACH OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS SFC LOW, A PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IS SEEN
ARRIVING TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL HELP FUEL OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A BAND OF
PRECIP FORMING WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION TRACKING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE DELAYED
THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, DUE TO DRY AIR SEEN ALOFT FROM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS, SO FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30%.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS DRY LAYER ERODING AWAY WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVENTUALLY CURLS
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING EAST.
CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE: THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO START OUT AS
RAIN, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAY'S/TODAY'S IMPACTFUL
STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW
EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECASTED AMOUNTS OF SNOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND
4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD OF SLRS TO AROUND 13:1 WAS DONE IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, GIVEN COBB OUTPUT RATIOS RANGED
FROM 10:1 TO 20:1 AT TIMES WHILE NBM GUIDANCE WAS SOMEWHAT LOWER.
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS TEND TO AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SHORTER
RANGE ENSEMBLES, BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT SOME PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS.
LOOKING BEYOND INTO THE EXTENDED, NOT MUCH IS SEEN IN THE WAY FOR
PRECIP CHANCES. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS FOR TUESDAY CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO EVEN LOW 70S!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND EVENTUALLY EXIT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, BUT STILL EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIFR/IFR AT OMA AS
SNOW TAPERS OFF. COULD SEE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW ONCE SNOW ENDS,
BUT WITH HOW HEAVY AND WET IT IS, NOT EXPECTING LARGE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT THIS TIME, AND HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN ANY WHERE SNOW
HAS COME TO AN END. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY IS THE CONTINUED STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
40-50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING, 25-35 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE GUSTS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AND WE'RE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-
034-045-052-053-067-068-090>093.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO/MEAD
AVIATION...CA
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