023
FXUS63 KOAX 052306
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
506 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE TAPERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLOWING SNOW IS COMING TO AN END.
- NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. POPS
INCREASE BY THURSDAY EVENING TO AROUND 70- 90%. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF I-80.
- A WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THE LAST OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING ROUND OF SNOW STILL LINGER OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS THERE DRAPED AT 2500FT AGL. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR SKIES REVEAL A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW BLANKETING MOST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE REPORTS OF 1-4" AND TRAVEL IMPACTS WERE
WIDESPREAD. WIND GUSTS, PEAKING AT 50-75 MPH AT TIMES LAST
NIGHT, ARE NOW PEAKING AT HALF THAT SPEED.
CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AND WITH SOME
SUNSHINE, A CRUST IS LIKELY FORMING OVER THE NEW SNOWFALL. THIS
DRAMATICALLY REDUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.
BUT HEY! THIS IS NOT AN *AREA RECENT EVENTS DISCUSSION*...IT'S
A *FORECAST* DISCUSSION. GOING FORWARD, WE'RE EXPECTING TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE A FEW RAYS OF
SUN EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING, BUT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H5 WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT
THIS HOUR. THE MONTH OF MARCH BRINGS A QUICKLY GROWING SUN
ANGLE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS, BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED BY
MID- DAY THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION MAY
BE SLOW TO BEGIN AS THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE AS EVIDENCED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVER THE COURSE OF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES, THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.
THIS CWA WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
PLODDING SYSTEM AND EXPECTS TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
UNDER SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TO
COINCIDE UNDER THE FRONTOGENESIS OF 850-600 MB AND WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THAT
LEAVES NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND A LITTLE SLUSH. LINCOLN, OMAHA, AND AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 MAY SEE SNOW FALL BUT MELT NEARLY AS
QUICKLY WITH THE WARMER TEMPS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS SLIP ONLY TO
ABOUT 30F IN THESE AREAS. A FEW COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH WILL BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS. THE NBM SEEMS TO BE UNDERSELLING THE SLRS THERE,
SO BUMPED UP SLRS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE (AROUND ELEVEN)
DURING THAT PERIOD TO BETTER REFLECT OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS LEFT
EARLY ESTIMATES OF 2-5" OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA (AND HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS).
EVEN WITH THE LOWER SLRS, NBM SUGGESTS A 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST
3" OF SNOW IN THE NORFOLK AREA AND LESS THAN 10% CHANCE AT KOMA
AND KLNK. WITH THE WINDS SLOWER THAN THEY WERE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING, DON'T BELIEVE BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AND IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER FROM BORDER TO
BORDER. STILL, SOME SORT OF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH- SOUTH POSITION OF THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT TO SEE SOMETHING ISSUED THURSDAY MORNING.
A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO FREEZING RAIN CONCERN. THE LAST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD WRAP UP BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS ON THE WORKWEEK
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE WEEKEND
SATURDAYS ARE USUALLY WELCOMED AT THIS OFFICE AND SATURDAYS
WARMED BY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN EARLY MARCH
ARE SOME OF OUR FAVORITES. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS
A SIZABLE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND
DOWNSLOPING COMPRESSION HELPS PUSH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
SATURDAY (UPPER 40S). SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TEN DEGREES WARMER.
EXTENDED
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARMER THAN
SEASONAL NORMS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AND MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND BRING AN END TO OUR PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
A MUCH CALMER TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO TREND DOWN AS
THEY GRADUALLY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY THEN
SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AT KOFK AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT KOMA AND KLNK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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