035
FXUS63 KOAX 070404
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1004 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHEAST NE AND
NORTHWEST IA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- 5-7" OF SNOW EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NELIGH TO WAYNE
WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST.
- A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY REACHING THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
WE HAVE SEEN THICKENING CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE ECHOES ON THE RADAR, MOST OF THIS IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE BENEATH CLOUD BASES
THAT RANGE FROM 8000-18000 FEET. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING
IN NORTH CENTRAL NE WHERE MUCH LOWER CLOUD BASES EXIST.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE SHOULD PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN
WAVES THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST
NE, BEGINNING INITIALLY AS RAIN, BUT MIXING WITH AND SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING, REMAINING ALL SNOW THEN UNTIL
THE EVENT ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOMORROW. WE PREVIOUSLY HAD
4-6" IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST NE FOR THE EVENT. NEW MODELS
WOULD SUPPORT 5-7", WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO
REACH 3/4 TO 1" PER HOUR DURING THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AND THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD BE WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
PIVOT POINT OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN KS. THUS, GIVEN THAT A FEW MORE PIXELS OF 6-7" ARE NOW
IN THE FORECAST, WE OPTED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST NE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, INCLUDING ANTELOPE,
KNOX, CEDAR, PIERCE, AND WAYNE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. SO CERTAINLY NOT
THE WIND SPEEDS EXPERIENCED WITH THE WINTER STORM EARLIER THIS
WEEK, BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 3/4 TO 1 1/2
MILE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT, BUT COULD BEGIN
TO MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, THEN ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AND
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS EVEN DRY SLOT THE I80 CORRIDOR SHUTTING
OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AFTER 5 OR 6 AM, SO THIS WAS
FACTORED INTO A SHARP CUTOFF OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS, NE TO HARLAN, IA, WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AND ALONG INTERSTATE 80, WE
REALLY ONLY HAVE 0.1 TO 0.2 FORECAST, AND MUCH OF THAT MAY EVEN
MELT, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVEN THAT MUCH IF THE DRY SLOT SETS UP
ALONG IT. AND THEN NO MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST IA.
EVEN WITH THE SNOWFALL COMING, HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE
STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80, SO THAT WILL HELP MELT SOME OF THE ACCUMULATION AS WELL.
AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S, THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY, AND THEN THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SOME 18 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE MIGHT BE A BIT OF A PULLBACK ON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, AND IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. THE EC MODEL HINTS AT A
WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GFS IS
LESS PRONOUNCED, AND THE NBM KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY.
WHILE IT'S BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, MANY WEATHER
ENTHUSIASTS ARE WATCHING ANOTHER BIG CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEKEND MARCH 14TH-16TH. AND GIVEN THAT IT'S
8-10 DAYS AWAY, THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBSTANTIAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
WE'LL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
RAIN HAS TURNED TO -RASN OR -SN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN A
BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP NORTH OF KOFK. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE BACK
INTO KOFK AROUND 07-08Z WITH A SWITCHOVER TO -SN AROUND THAT
TIME. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO IFR AS SNOW MOVES INTO KOFK.
MEANWHILE, KOMA AND KLNK WILL STAY UNDER HIGHER CIGS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL -RA. WE WON'T SEE LOWER CIGS ARRIVE AT
KLNK AND KOMA UNTIL 12-15Z FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS THE
PRECIP BAND SOUTH. EXPECT PRIMARILY A MIX OF -RASN WITH
OCCASIONAL SWITCHOVERS TO -SN REDUCING VIS AS THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. CIGS LIKELY WILL DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
PRECIP COMES TO AN END AROUND 18Z-20Z. AS PRECIP MOVES OUT
EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT BACK UP TO MVFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY EVENING
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ015-
030>034-042>045.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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