927
FXUS63 KOAX 071726
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1126 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLICK, SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.
- A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY REACHING THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOSELY
WATCHING A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ON EXACT TRACK AND
RESULTING PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
WE WILL BEGIN CANCELING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN KS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADING TO SPOTTY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. THAT SAID THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SO AS OF 3 AM, NOT MUCH OF THAT PRECIP WAS
HITTING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NE
INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA, FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS
LEADING TO A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, SNOW ACCUMULATION HAD
BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED SO FAR, SO FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
TRENDING A BIT DOWNWARD. HOWEVER, LATEST NEBRASKA DOT WEBCAMS
SHOW SNOW INTENSITY PICKING UP A BIT, SO WOULD THINK WE'LL START
ACCUMULATING MORE ON ROADS SHORTLY, AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO GO
MUCH FARTHER WEST TO SEE SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. THIS BAND
SHOULD SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST LINE THROUGH OMAHA. AS IT STANDS,
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL 1-4" ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE TO ONAWA, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
A COUNTY OR 2 SOUTH OF THAT. FOR NOW, ONLY ADJUSTED END TIME OF
THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES, MOVING IT FROM 6 PM TO 3 PM,
AS LATEST GUIDANCE ENDS SNOW EARLIER. THAT SAID, THERE WAS
CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO CONVERTING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AS
WELL, GIVEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDERACHIEVING SO FAR. HOWEVER,
LATEST RADAR DOES SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MAIN SNOW BAND,
WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE, AND
EVEN TO 1/4 MILE AT NELIGH, SO DIDN'T WANT TO END IT JUST YET.
FOLLOWING THE PRECIP, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD
IN WHILE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL SET UP WITH
DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING A PRETTY QUICK WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S SATURDAY, MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S
MONDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY COULD LEAD TO
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. WITH RH
VALUES ALSO FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, IT MAY
BE A DAY TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FIRE CONCERNS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL
BRING US BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR PRETTY MUCH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL. A FEW
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT
WE'RE LOOKING AT RAIN CHANCES OF LESS THAN 10%. GUIDANCE IS
THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY
SPINNING UP AND EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. SOLUTIONS FOR
OUR AREA RANGE FROM A SNOW BAND TO A POTENTIAL OUTSIDE SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER TO GETTING COMPLETELY DRY SLOTTED AND ALMOST NO
PRECIPITATION. ABOUT THE ONLY THING WE'RE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT IN
IS WE'LL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. BOTTOM LINE, LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS A TIME
PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX ENDING IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT KOFK BY 22Z, AND
AT KLNK/KOMA BY 00-01Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 15-24 KNOTS, DIMINISHING
TO LESS THEN 12 KNOTS BY 22-01Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
IAZ043-055-056.
UPDATE...DEWALD
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...DEWALD
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