597
FXUS63 KOAX 072016
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
216 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
- VERY WARM, DRY, WINDY WEATHER ON MONDAY LEADS TO VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
BY NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
OUR WINTRY WEATHER FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IS WINDING
DOWN. A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND SHOULD END ALTOGETHER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AND
THEN QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A WARMING TREND.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL MO CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ROADS ALL APPEAR TO BE WET, BUT HOPEFULLY
DRYING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, AND HOPEFULLY NOT MUCH OF ISSUE
WITH REFREEZE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE 1-4" OF
SLUSHY SNOW FELL.
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SPECTACULAR. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAIL SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TOMORROW. AFTER LOWS IN THE MID 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGHS SHOULD THEN REACH THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
AND THEN LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 30S.
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS HELPS BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, WHICH IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD VALUES, WHICH RANGE
FROM 77 TO 78 DEGREES SET IN 1967 OR 2014. WITH THE WARMTH,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER. WITH THE MOISTURE THIS PAST WEEK FROM THE TWO
STORMS, OUR FUELS (DEAD GRASSES FROM THE WINTER) LIKELY MAY NOT
BE DRY ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SPEAKING OF THE MOISTURE, BOTH STORMS THIS WEEK PRODUCED A
COMBINED MOISTURE EQUIVALENT OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF
INCHES, VERY BENEFICIAL WHICH ALL SHOULD HAVE SOAKED INTO THE
UNFROZEN GROUND.
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRINGS HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY, THEN BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S FOR WEDNESDAY, AND THEN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING A VERY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH TODAY'S COMPUTER RUNS, BUT IT'S ALSO STILL A WEEK
AWAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA, BUT ALSO INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL, AND PERHAPS
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING MODEL ALSO
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION AND POINTS TO THE EAST, SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL
BE WATCHING CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR NOW, IT'S ALL RAIN FOR US SINCE
WE'LL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE IT'S JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE COULD ALSO BE SNOW POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY, BUT AGAIN, JUST TOO FAR OUT
FOR ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX ENDING IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT KOFK BY 22Z, AND
AT KLNK/KOMA BY 00-01Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 15-24 KNOTS, DIMINISHING
TO LESS THEN 12 KNOTS BY 22-01Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
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