399
FXUS63 KOAX 081108
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
508 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE
REMAINED UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH MONDAY, EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO
KEEP A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH RESULTING
DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING US TO GAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO EACH DAY.
SO CURRENTLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S TODAY, 50S AND 60S
SUNDAY, AND 60S AND 70S MONDAY. THE MONDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN
MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS (77 AT OMAHA AND NORFOLK AND 78 AT
LINCOLN). ALSO OF NOTE ON MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH AND RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. THAT SAID,
WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW DEEP WE CAN MIX ON
MONDAY, AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30+ KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND A
FEW PIECES SUGGEST WE MIX EVEN DEEPER THAN THAT (E.G. 08.00Z
GFS). THIS WOULD RESULT IN WINDS OVERACHIEVING AND PERHAPS
REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
FUELS DRY OUT FOLLOWING OUR RECENT PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT'LL
BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE, BY THURSDAY A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY SPINNING UP
A STRONG SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
EJECT EASTWARD SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING OUR
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN (I.E. THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH), LOTS OF DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST
IN EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SOLUTIONS STILL
RANGE FROM A BAND OF SNOWFALL TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO A
PRETTY GOOD DRY SLOT KEEPING US LARGELY PRECIPITATION FREE.
REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE PRETTY WINDY
AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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