873
FXUS63 KOAX 082122
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO
THE AREA FRIDAY ALONGSIDE VERY STRONG WINDS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A BROAD, HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WHILE A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EJECTION FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TOWARDS THE GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN THIRD.
TAKING A LOOK AT A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS, A WEST-TO-EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
CO/KS/MO/IL, WHILE WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS HELP TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTO
THE 50S AREA WIDE ASIDE FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SNOWPACK IS
STILL MELTING. WITH THAT MELTING IN MIND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 30-36 DEGREE
RANGE AHEAD OF OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 25 DEGREES. THE ONE THING THAT
WOULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL IS THE SPORADIC NATURE
OF THE DEWPOINTS, AND IF FOG DOES FORM IT WOULD BE SIMILARLY
SPORADIC -- STICKING MAINLY TO RECENTLY-MELTED SNOWFALL AREAS AND
THE RIVER VALLEYS WITHIN THEM.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW, WITH INCREASING
INFLUENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER NOTICEABLE JUMP IN HIGHS INTO THE 60S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, AT 15 MPH OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, MAKING FOR A TREMENDOUS SUNDAY DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
BY MONDAY, THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED EVEN FARTHER
EASTWARD, COVERING ALMOST THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND
FURTHER INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. MODELS HAVE INDICATED
SOME GUSTY POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY, WHERE SPEEDS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS
35 MPH AND COMBINE WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. IT'S HARD TO SAY IF WE'LL GET TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER AND NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DUE TO THE RECENT MOISTURE, BUT
WE'RE NOT CONFIDENT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF BOTH THOSE STRONGER WINDS
AND DRIED OUT FUELS TO GO THERE YET.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER DIP IN IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BEFORE CLIMBING
BACK UP 60S WEDNESDAY AND 70S THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST
IMPACT-WISE, AS A DEEPENING AND NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH EJECTS
FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SCATTER SHOT
WHEN EXAMINING ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, AND EXACTLY WHERE IT ENDS UP
AND WHEN. THOSE THAT WANT THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO
SEVERE) MAY LIKE THE EPS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING A LESS DEEP
LOW, FARTHER WEST WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE, THE GEFS/GFS GIVES US INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN THE
DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT WINDS
ARE GOING TO BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, WHILE
SATURDAY HAS EVEN HIGHER POTENTIAL (AS HIGH AS 55+ MPH ACCORDING
TO THE EPS) DUE TO THE DEEP NATURE OF THE LOWS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE EJECTING THROUGH AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET RAIN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND AREAS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD GET
SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO YOU ARE
ROOTING FOR, WE'LL BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE LESS LIKELY ONES AS WE
GET CLOSER. FOR NOW, WE'LL BE BETTER OFF ENJOYING THE NICE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND'S WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SIMPLE, WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY ALONGSIDE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT JUST
UNDER 10 KTS. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED BELOW 5
KTS AND WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG NORTH OF
KOMA, THOUGH NOT AT THE TERMINAL.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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