090
FXUS63 KOAX 091102
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
602 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S OR 70S EVERY DAY BUT TUESDAY (40S AND 50S).
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES (60-80%) AND
STRONG WINDS BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VERY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3
AM WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK IN NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA, BUT
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR AND WINDS ALOFT LOOK LIKE THEY'LL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FURTHER
WARMING US INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S, NEARLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, IT COULD BE A
PRETTY NICE DAY (THOUGH MAYBE A TOUCH BREEZY) TO CATCH A NAP
OUTSIDE AND REGAIN THAT HOUR OF SLEEP YOU LOST OVERNIGHT.
WE'LL WARM EVEN FURTHER ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT, EXPECT A VERY GOOD MIXING DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY EVEN BREAKING RECORDS
IN A FEW SPOTS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THOSE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 30+ KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THEREFORE, BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT TO GET
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AND MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER DEPENDING HOW
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS,
COUPLED WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S,
WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF FUELS WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH
FOLLOWING OUR RECENT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW REMAINING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING TO USHER IN DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT A DRY
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S, BUT OVERALL STILL A FAIRLY NICE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GET
BACK INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND 70S ON THURSDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH-TALKED-ABOUT STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPIN UP A SURFACE
LOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, WITH IT
PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK, WITH MOST
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW DIRECTLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA (STILL SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES), THOUGH STILL SOME
LARGER DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TIMING, WITH GFS/GEFS GENERALLY
BEING A TOUCH FASTER. NOW FOR THE RESULTING WEATHER. JUST GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE THING WE'RE MOST CONFIDENT IN IS
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. FOR SOME CONTEXT IN SYSTEM STRENGTH,
09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SEA LEVEL PRESSURE VALUES AT OMAHA WOULD
BOTH CRACK THE TOP 10 LOWEST PRESSURES RECORDED AT EPPLEY
AIRFIELD (DATA GOING BACK TO 1948). FURTHERMORE, EVEN THE
GEFS/EPS MEAN VALUES WOULD BE IN/NEAR THAT LIST. REGARDING THE
RESULTING WINDS, EPS MEAN VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON
FRIDAY AND 40-50 MPH RANGE ON SUNDAY, WITH QUITE A FEW
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOWING 50+ MPH GUSTS. SO WE'LL LIKELY
EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY AT THE VERY LEAST, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH/WARNING.
NOW ONTO THE QUESTION MARKS OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WE'LL SEE FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH IN GENERAL BEST MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL
BE JUST TO OUR EAST. STILL COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA AND GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THAT AREA. BEHIND THOSE STORMS, EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF
DRY AIR, THOUGH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON JUST HOW DRY.
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND KEEPING US NEARLY COMPLETELY DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DRY SOLUTIONS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, EXPECT A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION, LIKELY RAIN POSSIBLY
SWITCHING TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GENERAL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE HIGHEST SNOW CHANCES FOR OUR AREA IN
NORTHEAST NE, THOUGH SOME VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
COLD AIR AND SNOW DOWN TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL A LITTLE
TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT WHEREVER THE SNOW
DOES END UP FALLING, EXPECT TRAVEL IMPACTS, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY AT THE VERY
LEAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS MORNING, AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO AROUND 12KTS BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS DROP BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ030-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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