506
FXUS63 KOAX 122314
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD BE NEEDED
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NE FOR MONDAY.
- LOW (20%) RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES (25-40%) WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
IT HAS BEEN A WARM, WINDY, DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM RANGED
IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 30 TO 45 MPH,
WITH HUMIDITY DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT. THESE ARE BORDERLINE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS, AND IT'S POSSIBLE WE'VE MET CRITERIA FOR A
COUNTIES.
ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE SMOKE THAT CONTINUES TO FILTER
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM FLINT HILLS KS PRESCRIBED BURNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE AIR QUALITY, ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF PERSONAL AIR SENSORS HAVE HIT UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS. THE SMOKE CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND COULD
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ONCE THE SUN GOES DOES AND WIND
DIMINISHES. THE SMOKE ADVISORY ISSUED BY NE STATE AGENCIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NE SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN
QUITE MILD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. WINDS SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S FOR NORTHEAST NE, AND THUS, THE COMBINATION OF THE
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, THUS WE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8
PM. THE COLD AIR REALLY LAGS THE WIND SHIFT QUITE A BIT, THUS
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE LOWER 70S
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG/SOUTH OF I80.
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OF SPOTTY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT'S ALL MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SO
DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP FOR ANYTHING MEANINGFUL, AND PROBABLY
WON'T EVEN BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE, BUT PERHAPS JUST GET YOUR CAR
DIRTY IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
DROP INTO THE 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY AT 25 TO 35 MPH. WITH
DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE 20S, MINIMUM HUMIDITY AGAIN DROPS TO 20 TO
25 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION MAKES ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE DANGER,
AND WE MAY VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN NE FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY, THE WIND FINALLY EASES, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FANTASTIC DAY, HIGHS IN THE MID 60S, AND WIND SPEEDS 10-15 MPH.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATIONS
SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MIGHT BE RETURNING ALONG WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL BE
WATCHING FOR AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DO
BOOST BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DO HAVE SMALL 20-30%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
TIMING IS LOW. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. BUT ANOTHER FRONT DOES MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED CHANGES AND LLWS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE, BUT CURRENTLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO BE P6SM. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO 45-55 KTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THAT TIME WITH
LLWS. A FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE WITHIN 1 HOUR OF THE
FORECAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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