733
FXUS63 KOAX 130853
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY AND MONDAY WITH 30 TO
POTENTIALLY 50 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY MONDAY). A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY.
- SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON (20%
CHANCE). SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE
50+ MPH GUSTS.
- HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-50%) WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
PRETTY QUIET AND FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM STILL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. MAIN
FEATURES OF NOTE WERE A SURFACE LOW SPINNING IN NORTHWEST KS
AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN, ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO WY. TODAY, THE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN KS WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH, STRONGEST IN NORTHEAST NE. IN
ADDITION, DRY AIR WILL BE WORKING IN WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER TEENS IN
NORTHEAST NE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND ALSO ADDED A FEW COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE WATCH WAS. ALSO WANT TO NOTE THAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PRETTY GOOD SLUG OF "REINFORCING" DRY AIR
PUSHING IN THIS EVENING. WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AS IT MOVES IN, THEY DO PICK BACK UP WITHIN
A FEW HOURS, SO THIS COULD BE AN ODD CASE WHERE POCKETS OF VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER PERSIST AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTHERWISE,
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
POTENTIAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
NE/SOUTHWEST IA OWING TO SOME PRETTY STRONG MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, THERE'S QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE, SO ONLY GIVE IT ABOUT A
15-20% CHANCE OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY (35 TO POTENTIALLY
50 MPH GUSTS) AND WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN (HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S), FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN IN THE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME CATEGORY WITH RH ONCE AGAIN FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NE AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IA. WILL NEED TO
ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
THROUGH WITH 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AND
WEST-CENTRAL IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DRY AIR/AN INVERTED V
IN THE LOW LEVELS, BUT CLOUD BASES DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS HIGH AS
THOSE SUNDAY EVENING, SO IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP, PRECIP SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. IN ADDITION, WOULDN'T RULE OUT A
SHOWER/STORM LEADING TO SOME ENHANCED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH (15-30%
CHANCE PER 13.00Z HREF).
WINDS WILL FINALLY WEAKEN FOR TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH, THOUGH STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS
NEARING 20 MPH. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY, THOUGH, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO RIPPLE BY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE NE/KS
BORDER SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
ON IF WE'LL SEE ANYTHING OUT OF THAT (CURRENTLY HAVE A 20-30%
CHANCE). OTHERWISE, WITH THE RIDGING BUILDING IN, WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
FOR THURSDAY, A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN UP OVER EASTERN CO WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WE'LL HAVE DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, SO IT SEEMS THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, SOME INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER US. SO OVERALL, STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT, BUT COULD
BE A TIME TO WATCH WITH VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING BASED SEVERE
WEATHER GUIDANCE INDICATING 5-15+ PERCENT CHANCES.
BEYOND THAT, GUIDANCE FAVORS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING US LARGELY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SUGGESTS WE'LL BE MOVING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH WE'RE STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO
DISCUSS SPECIFIC TIME PERIODS IN GREAT DETAIL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED CHANGES AND LLWS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE, BUT CURRENTLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO BE P6SM. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO 45-55 KTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THAT TIME WITH
LLWS. A FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE WITHIN 1 HOUR OF THE
FORECAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-090.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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