828
FXUS63 KOAX 132311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY AND MONDAY WITH 30 TO
POTENTIALLY 50 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY MONDAY). A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY, WITH
ANOTHER IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALONGSIDE A WIND
ADVISORY.
- SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON (20%
CHANCE). SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE 55+
MPH GUSTS.
- HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-50%) WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS (30-40%) THIS
UPCOMING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RELEASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. A
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO IOWA WHILE A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN
IOWA, ARCHING FROM THE WAYNE SOUTHWEST TO FAR NORTHWEST KS.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE BEEN SETTLING
IN BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH, AND HAVE BEEN DRIVING VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER THAT MAXES OUT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON BEFORE COOLING
TOO FAST WHERE LOWERING DEWPOINTS HAVE KEEP RH VALUES LOW AND
AROUND 35%. WINDS SHOULD STAY STEAD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AND
LIMITING THE LOW RH VALUES BY 03Z, WHICH IS WHEN THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ENDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S, WITH THOSE WINDS KEEPING ANY
SPOT FROM GETTING TOO COOL LOCALLY.
FOR MONDAY, WE'LL SEE WINDS AT MULTIPLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 25-35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE WINDS, AND WILL JOIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 18-25% RANGE THANKS TO VERY DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 650 MB. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS HAS A RED FLAG WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR 1 TO 9 PM. AT THE TOP OF THAT MIXED LAYER, ABOUT 50-
100 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL GLANCE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA,
AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WITH THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PUSH DOWN VERY STRONG WINDS, POTENTIALLY OF 60+ MPH. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THE CHANCES OF THOSE SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS IS ABOUT 20-30%
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
TUESDAY WILL SEE WINDS RELEASING THEIR GRIP ON THE AREA THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS, WE'LL HAVE HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 60S TO MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE
ADDITIONAL WARMING AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MOISTENING OF THE LOWEST 350
MB, BUT IS INCONCLUSIVE ON HOW MUCH LIFT THERE WILL BE TO MAKE
ANYTHING OF IT (WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MAIN SUPPORTER OF RAIN).
OUR NEXT BIGGER TICKET ITEM WILL COME THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE WEDNESDAY WARM FRONT HAS A SHORTWAVE PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW MUCH
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE 700-800 MB RANGE, AND WHETHER IT
WILL JUMP START A STORM OUT OF THE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. STRONG
SHEAR AND LITTLE-TO-NO ACCESS TO THE LOWER HODOGRAPH POINTS
TOWARDS HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FAR OUT, WITH
A 15% SEVERE OUTLOOK ALSO HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE'LL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S.
FRIDAY ONWARD WILL SEE A CUTTING OFF MID/UPPER LOW SQUAT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FRIDAY BEFORE SPRINGING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
EJECTION WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT, AS THE TILT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE AND MORE DAYLIGHT AS THE FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN
ECMWF-FAVORED SOLUTION WOULD BE TIMED BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH ML SEVERE GUIDANCE BASED ON IT SHOWING SEVERE CHANCES
MAXING OUT AT 30% IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. FOR NOW, WE'LL KEEP
AND EYE ON IT, THERE'S PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRACK AND TIMING
SHIFTS TO OCCUR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH I DO HAVE A 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KOFK 13-16Z. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 20-35 KNOTS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
SPRINKLES AT KLNK/KOMA 06-12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND WILL
ADD THEM TO THE NEXT TAF IF THEY BECOME CERTAIN.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
069-079-090.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DEWALD/PETERSEN
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