802
FXUS63 KOAX 141034
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH 30 TO POTENTIALLY
50 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ALONGSIDE A WIND ADVISORY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA (20% CHANCE). SOME OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE 55+ MPH GUSTS.
- HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-50%) WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ON THURSDAY (10-15%
CHANCE).
- ANOTHER CHANCE (40-60%) FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER MN/WI WITH
A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH NE AND LEADING TO A BAND OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. THERE'S
PROBABLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE AREA (THOUGH HAVEN'T SEEN ANY IN
OBS), BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD REALLY LIMIT ANY MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. THAT BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE AREA BY AROUND 10 AM.
THE BIGGER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY AIR LEADING TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SOME SIMILAR GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. KEPT THE WIND
ADVISORY AS-IS WITH THOSE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE 30+ MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AND 40 TO ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. IN ADDITION, A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO SPOTTY SHOWER AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA (20% CHANCE
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION). WHILE INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER (100-200
J/KG OF MUCAPE), ANY UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME ENHANCED 50+ MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE
HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL, BUT LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD KEEPING SAID STRONGER UPDRAFTS IMMEDIATELY
TO OUR NORTHEAST. DEFINITELY CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.
OTHERWISE, THE DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH INCOMING DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
RH VALUES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD EAST INTO
IA, SO ELECTED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING AS-IS, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEEDING TO ADD THE REMAINING 3 COUNTIES THIS
MORNING (SHELBY, MONTGOMERY, AND PAGE).
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY START TO DIE DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO PRETTY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND WINDS
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START
TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH, BUT COULD CLIP AREAS NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY (20% CHANCE). MEANWHILE,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
LOW WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND START TO PUSH EAST, WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT EDGING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO RAMP UP AND SHOULD HELP BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE AREA ALONG WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FAIRLY STOUT
CAP THAT WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND IT'S ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACTUALLY BUILD IF THERE'S ANY
MORNING CONVECTION. SO LOTS OF DETAILS TO STILL WORK OUT, BUT
THURSDAY COULD BE A DAY TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
WITH HAIL AND WIND CURRENTLY BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
OTHERWISE, THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS PRETTY WARM, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I- 80, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES, THOUGH OF COURSE THESE COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
ANY PRECIP.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE
TOWARD SUNDAY WHEN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM/SURFACE
LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE INTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOTS
OF DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING
FROM TAKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEPING
ALMOST ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR EAST. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A
40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH,
LONGER TERM ENSEMBLES FAVOR KEEPING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK, SO EVEN IF WE MISS OUT ON THESE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET AT LEAST
SOMETHING THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
STILL LOOKS LIKE OFK COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
THE TAF SITES WITH PASSING CLOUDS RANGING FROM 6000 TO 15000 FT
THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING 30-40
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING.
THERE'S STILL A 20% CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/WEST-CENTRAL
IOWA. IF STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD PRODUCE GUSTS NEARING 45
KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-090.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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