084
FXUS63 KOAX 150838
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY (MAINLY SOUTHWEST IOWA)
AND WEDNESDAY (MOST OF THE AREA).
- SHOWER AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY (30-50%
CHANCE). A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING (5-15% CHANCE) AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
(15-30% CHANCE) WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
PRETTY QUIET AND COOL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM WERE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND COULD FALL ENOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
AND SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S AND WEAKER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THAT SAID, WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE (MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S)
WE'LL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS IN SOUTHWEST IA WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE A BIT STRONGER. IN ADDITION,
MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA SHOW NEAR 25 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH 15.00Z HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 30 MPH GUSTS (20-40% CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON). WHILE THE
DRY AIR ALONE WILL BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, IF THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS END UP
OCCURRING, WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME POCKETS OF EXTREME FIRE
DANGER/RED FLAG CRITERIA.
LOWER PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.
WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, IT WILL BE "OFFSET" BY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS A RESULT, RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AGAIN AND WE'LL HAVE WIDESPREAD VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP AND POINTS INTO
THE AREA (MOST LIKELY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT). WITH SOME DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WE
COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT (20-30% CHANCE OF STORMS, 5-15% CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS).
THESE STORMS SHOULD EXIT BY LATE MORNING/MID-DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING
SOME INSTABILITY RECOVERY HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. MEANWHILE, SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE BULGE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD ON TIMING AND TRACK/PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT CAP THAT
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL, THERE LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS
IN THE EVENING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF WE'RE ABLE TO ERODE
THE CAP DURING THE DAY AND GET SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION PRIOR
TO THE DRY AIR PUNCHING IN, DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO THREAT
WOULD BE THERE WITH PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE,
THOUGH THAT SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%).
OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS A FEW
90S NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
WE'LL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S AND 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WHILE THE FRONT
SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA, A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT
COULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE FAR SOUTHEAST NE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (15-20% CHANCE).
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A LARGER SCALE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS SHOULD START TO PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG SURFACE
LOW SPINNING UP AND EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. STILL A LOT
OF SPREAD IN EXACT TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW,
SO OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH,
CURRENT CONSENSUS WOULD TAKE THE LOW THROUGH THE NE/KS/IA/MO BORDER
AND GIVE MOST OF THE AREA A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PER VARIOUS
MACHINE LEARNING DERIVED PROBABILITIES, BUT AGAIN STILL LOTS OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
MAY SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOMA UNTIL 9Z THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, BUT MAY RETURN AT
KOMA FROM 17Z TO 21Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND LESS THAN 15 KTS. WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 1Z AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page