207
FXUS63 KOAX 161945
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A SMOKE ADVISORY ISSUED BY NDEE WILL BE IN EFFECT
DURING THIS TIME.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THAT A STORM OR TOW
COULD BE SEVERE NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
- THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (15-30% CHANCE, MAINLY 5-10 PM).
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER WINDY, WARM DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED IN THE MIDDLE 70S, WITH STILL
SOME UPWARD POTENTIAL YET THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CREATED VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION, AND SATELLITE HAS DETECTED
A FEW HOT SPOTS.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CAMS
SUGGEST SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 1 AM, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS NOW REMAINING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
A STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION, BUT
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. AND IT'S DOUBTFUL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WOULD
GET ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN I80.
MEANWHILE, SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM
FIRES TO THE SOUTH. AS WE DID YESTERDAY, WE COORDINATED WITH NE
STATE AGENCIES ON THE NEED FOR ANOTHER SMOKE ADVISORY, WITH AQI
LEVELS MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY UNHEALTHFUL FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS,
THUS THE SMOKE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY.
FOR THURSDAY, WE PULLED OUT THE CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN. WHILE
THERE COULD BE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP ON THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MORNING. WE WILL WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST NE, WITH STORMS BECOMING LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT
BY 6-7 PM THEN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, AND
STILL MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NE. VARIOUS CAMS
SUGGEST CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FROM COLUMBUS, NE TO SIOUX
CITY IOWA BE EARLY EVENING, AND IT'S THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
WILL BRING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE SUPERCELLS, AND WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF LARGE HAIL UP TO
A COUPLE OF IN INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END CHARLIE
CELLS, MAYBE CLOSER TO THE WHERE A TRIPLE POINT COULD BE SETTING
UP. THE NAM NEST WOULD DEVELOP CONVECTION FARTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL NE, THEN MOVE IN LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO BE
A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. THE PRIME SEVERE STORM THREAT TIME FOR OUR
AREA REMAINS 5-11 PM.
BEYOND THAT, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY
WHEN THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY A SHOWER CHANCE FOR OUR EASTER WITH
COOLISH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE, NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE
LOW AS MODELS ARE LITTLE OUT OF SYNC ON THE TIMING FOR ANYTHING
SPECIFIC.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIOD, BUT MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT KLNK/KOMA BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 16-30
KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE. WE LOSE THE WIND GUSTS BY 00-01Z, AND
THEN LLWS DEVELOPS 05-12Z WITH WINDS AT 2000' FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 40-45 KNOTS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KLKN/KOMA
OVERNIGHT, BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF, AND IT VERY WELL
COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS. KLNK WOULD HAVE THE BEST
PROBABILITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER AND SOUTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
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