655
FXUS63 KOAX 171615
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT
ISSUED BY NDEE WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING (15-45% CHANCE, MAINLY 5-10 PM). THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION CHURNED TO OUR SOUTH, OVER EASTERN KANSAS. A
FEW SHOWERS CREPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, HOWEVER THE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAINED SOUTH
OF THE KS/NE BORDER.
SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN THE FLINT HILLS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR SMOKE RUNS DEPICT SLIGHTLY
LESS SURFACE SMOKE THAN YESTERDAY, IT COULD STILL BE UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7
AM FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY, HELPING TO DRAW WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH LATE THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH 90 ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE IN.
THIS INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AROUND 6 TO 7
PM TODAY, NEARLY ALL CAM SOLUTIONS INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME DISPARITY AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS AT THIS TIME, OUR
BEST GUESS LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-80 AND A LINE FROM ALBION
TO WAYNE. WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO A VERY POTENT ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY 50 TO 60 KTS OF 0-6
KM SHEAR, STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MLCAPE OF 1500-
2500 J/KG. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, UP TO 2"+ IN DIAMETER,
AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THESE CELLS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH-BASED, A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY 10 OR 11 PM THIS EVENING, AS STORMS PASS THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S. OUR NEXT NOTABLE SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
COULD SEE A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
DEVELOPING STORMS JUST EAST OF KOFK AROUND 22-23Z WHICH WILL
PROCEED TO THE EAST. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE KEEP THESE STORMS
NORTH OF KOMA, BUT HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR STORMS BETWEEN 01-02Z
WITH A 30% CHANCE STORMS IMPACT KOMA. KLNK WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY STAY SOUTH OF ANY STORMS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
AROUND 1500-2000 FT DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND
06-09Z OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 09Z IMPACTING
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z FRI.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MCCOY
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