082
FXUS63 KOAX 171931
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING (15-45% CHANCE, MAINLY 5-10
PM). PRIMARY THREAT: LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS. SECONDARY
THREATS: DAMAGING WINDS 60-70 MPH AND TORNADOES.
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY
TO HUMPHREY WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS, ALREADY UP AROUND 60 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS
HAS LED TO A GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST TO GET UP INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 5-6 PM BETWEEN COLUMBUS
AND THURSTON COUNTIES.
CAMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
RIGHT AROUND 5-6 PM. AS WE APPROACH STORM INITIATION TIME, WE'LL
SEE A DRY LINE SET UP ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF BUTLER TO
JEFFERSON COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A TRIPLE-POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
KANSAS STATE LINE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH LCLS AROUND 1500-1800 FT WILL AT
LEAST INITIALLY LIMIT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1KM, BUT 0-3KM SRH
VALUES OF AROUND 150-300 M2/S2 INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LCLS WILL BE LOWERING AS WE GET LATER IN
THE EVENING HOURS, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER-BASED
SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR SOUTH
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MORNING GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING FARTHER
NORTH WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT, MOSTLY KEEPING STORMS NORTH OF THE
OMAHA METRO. LATER GUIDANCE HAS STARTED BRINGING THAT POTENTIAL
BACK TO THE SOUTH, WITH STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS LINCOLN NOW
POSSIBLE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND
OMAHA NORTHWARD. IN ANY CASE, THE STORM FARTHEST SOUTH WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE BEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS IT SHOULD HAVE A
CLEAR, UNTAPPED INFLOW REGION. AGAIN, STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
5-6 PM, MOVING THROUGH OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS AROUND 7-8 PM. THE
HRRR DEVELOPS A TRAILING SUPERCELL OUT TOWARD LINCOLN AROUND 9
PM, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 10 PM, BUT IF THE OUTLIER SCENARIO
OCCURS, WE COULD HAVE ONE LAST STORM WHICH EXITS OUR AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. WE
COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN THE
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY
7 AM. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND WE'LL SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES SINK FARTHER SOUTH, DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
WITH SKIES CLEARING ON SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
TO AROUND 60 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CLIP OUR AREA WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WHILE AREAS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD GET MISSED COMPLETELY OR ONLY SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WE'LL SEE THAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH KICK OFF
TO THE EAST BRINGING BACK MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S STARTING
MONDAY, APPROACHING 80 ON TUESDAY. WE'LL WANT TO WATCH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL
MCS AS WE SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA INTERACTING
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. BEYOND THAT WE SEE TROUGHING
REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING US BACK INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
DEVELOPING STORMS JUST EAST OF KOFK AROUND 22-23Z WHICH WILL
PROCEED TO THE EAST. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE KEEP THESE STORMS
NORTH OF KOMA, BUT HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR STORMS BETWEEN 01-02Z
WITH A 30% CHANCE STORMS IMPACT KOMA. KLNK WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY STAY SOUTH OF ANY STORMS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
AROUND 1500-2000 FT DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND
06-09Z OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 09Z IMPACTING
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z FRI.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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