277
FXUS63 KOAX 180940 CCA
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
INCREASING CLOSER TO THE KS/MO BORDER.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES LEVEL OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S NEXT WEEK TO GO
ALONGSIDE THE RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING FEATURES A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH POINTED FROM THE CA/NV/AZ VICINITY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST WHILE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SLIDE SOUTHWARD. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PERSIST NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WAYNE,
WITH A FEW STORMS REACHING THE POINT OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
THOSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS BEFORE SCOOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND
SUNRISE. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THOSE
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL BELOW
10-15 MPH BY AROUND 9 PM OR SO AFTER HIGHS WILL HAVE TOPPED OUT
IN THE 54-58 DEGREE RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT'LL
BE A DREARY DAY, WITH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE AS THE
LOWEST 150 MB'S LAPSE RATES STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH TO FACILITATE
SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL LIFT FOR MIST/LIGHT RAIN. OTHER THAN THAT,
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARER SKIES
OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE MINOR
RAIN CHANCES GLANCE THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO TO AROUND 60 OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE, JOINING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
THE FORECAST'S BEST CHANCES AT SEEING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COME
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE WEST CUTS OFF OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RELATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL HAVE THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEE CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.
WHAT THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH IS ENTIRELY DEFORMATION BAND
PRECIPITATION. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE SPC AND ML GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE FOR US TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS, AND EVEN GETTING ANY
APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS
YOU MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT
TO A ZONAL ONE, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE WEEK WEARS ON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A KICK IN THE PANTS WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGE, WITH 70S SET TO CARRY US THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MONDAY SHOULD
BE THE ONLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RAIN AND WEAK
STORMS CARRYING US THROUGH INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY CLIPS US WITH SOME OF THE MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE OUTPUT FROM THE GEFS AND EPS, WHILE MOST OF THE
ACTION STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, A COMMON TRAIT OF A ZONAL
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE KOFK
VICINITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST. WE COULD SEE THOSE BRING MVFR CEILINGS WHILE
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OPTIMISTIC CEILINGS, AND TAFS HAVE HAD
THEIR MVFR PERIOD TRIMMED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z, BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR JUST BELOW WHILE
STAYING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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