626
FXUS63 KOAX 182301
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IN THE 50S AND 60S, WARMING
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
STORM SURVEY EFFORTS
TWO DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS HAVE BEEN OUT TODAY, ON THE FAR NORTH
SIDE OF OMAHA, AND ANOTHER TEAM IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. SURVEY
RESULTS WILL BE RELEASED LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL VIRTUAL SURVEYS
ARE BEING CONDUCTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF POTTAWATTAMIE AND CASS
COUNTIES IN COOPERATION WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
WEATHER CONCERNS
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE ACTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE
COULD BE CLIPPED WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS
TONIGHT DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80, AND UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH. AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE
RAIN THAN THE GFS, SO IT BE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
MOVES IN. AND BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE GFS, IT BRINGS RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EASTER SUNDAY,
WHILE THE EC WOULD KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF NORTHEAST NE. FOR NOW,
HAVE A BLEND OF THE TWO, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RANGING FROM
20-30% IN NORTHEAST NE, TO 80-90% IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST
IA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
RANGING FROM ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH, TO AS MUCH AS ONE
INCH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RAIN MOVES OUT FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. THERE IS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL BLENDS BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR TIMING AS IT WON'T
BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
70S WITH TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OVC050-060 CEILINGS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 12 KT BY 02-03Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEAD
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