272
FXUS63 KOAX 021723
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (40-75% CHANCE) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS AHEAD WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY (25-50% CHANCE) AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS IS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, PUSHING
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. POPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40-75% RANGE
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND WIND
PROTECTED AREAS. SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. POPS WILL DEPART
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 0.30".
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COUPLED
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, LIGHT WINDS, AND DECENT
MOISTURE, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE OPTED AGAINST FROST HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. GORGEOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S AND WINDS ON THE CALMER SIDE.
LONG TERM (MONDAY AND BEYOND)
BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD. MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE EVENING. HIGHS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK APPEAR NEAR-AVERAGE AND IN THE LOW 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MID-DAY TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL PRESENTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE BOTH THE TRACK AND SPEED THIS
LOW WILL TAKE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, BRINGING VARYING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. POPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 25-
50% RANGE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN
THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ON THE WEAKER SIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY GEFS-BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING LOW
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW BEFORE NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OMA AND LNK BOTH SEEING
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS, BUT OFK FAVORED TO STAY DRY. AS A RESULT,
COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN ANY HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 00Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS ALOFT MAY
STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FAIRLY PATCHY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18 KTS AT OFK THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CA
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