024
FXUS63 KOAX 022044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (40-75% CHANCE) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR EVEN BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS.
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS AHEAD WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY (20-40% CHANCE) AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LARGE AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND WE'VE ACTUALLY RECEIVED A REPORT OF HAIL COVERING
A LOCAL HIGHWAY, SO ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK IF ENOUGH
HAIL FALLS. IN ADDITION, GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
VORTICITY SUGGESTS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.
WHILE THEY'RE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND, IT'S SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES ADVANCING AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK QUITE A BIT. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT IN LOW-LYING AREAS. GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES LARGELY ABOVE 35 AND EXPECTED PATCHINESS OF THE
FROST, ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY, BUT IF
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING,
MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE. IN ADDITION, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL START TO KICK EAST ON SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SPIN UP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY SO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OUT
OF SOME LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS, BUT WE SHOULD LARGELY
SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND VERY NICE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WE'LL BE FEW
DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS, BUT STILL
ONLY 15 TO ISOLATED 20 MPH GUST. SO OVERALL, IT'S LOOKING LIKE A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND AND THAT SAME WEATHER SHOULD STICK AROUND
INTO MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, A CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO EDGE TOWARD THE AREA. STILL SOME SPREAD
IN EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT THERE'S A LITTLE BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT THE LOW/TROUGH ITSELF WILL TAKE A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE IMPACTED BY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY,
IT'LL LIKELY JUST BE SOME LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BIGGER
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING, WITH MANY EPS MEMBERS NOW KEEPING US
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AND HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL,
GEFS MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE PRECIP IN ON
TUESDAY. SO AS IT STANDS, WE HAVE A STANDING 20-40% CHANCE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MANY PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAN SUGGEST
WE SEE ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL, SEVERE WEATHER IS LOOKING
UNLIKELY, BUT WE WILL HAVE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OMA AND LNK BOTH SEEING
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS, BUT OFK FAVORED TO STAY DRY. AS A RESULT,
COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN ANY HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 00Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS ALOFT MAY
STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FAIRLY PATCHY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18 KTS AT OFK THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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