181
FXUS63 KOAX 031010
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS LOWS DIP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN WIND-PROTECTED AREAS.
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS AHEAD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY (20-40% CHANCE) AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, BRINGING CALM AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. HOWEVER, A FROST ADVISORY HAS NOT
BEEN ISSUES AT THIS TIME, AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3-7 DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING AND ONLY BRIEFLY DIPPING TO THEIR MINIMUMS
BEFORE REBOUNDING. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW-LYING AND WIND-PROTECTED AREAS.
SUNRISE WILL USHER IN A CLEAR AND PLEASANT DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH,
WHICH IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL, AMOUNTING TO NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH
AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE.
BY THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
ESTABLISHING A BLOCKING PATTERN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST, KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY AND BEYOND)
BY TUESDAY, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE
WESTERN CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHES ON ITS SLOW EASTWARD TREK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH
MOST GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW HOLDING OFF ON RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. POPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 20-
40% THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS LIGHT WINDS
SHIFTING IN DIRECTION OVER TIME, STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
MORNING, BECOMING WESTERLY THIS EVENING, AND SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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