289
FXUS63 KOAX 040422
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
FEW CLOUDS. VERY LOW END CHANCE (<5%) FOR A SCATTERED STRAY
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
- SLIGHTLY BREEZIER FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A PLEASANT
DAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
- POPS RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
GOES-16 DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE MID 60S AS OF 18Z WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALSO OBSERVED. THESE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY DRIVEN BY A SFC
RIDGE WITH RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE AXIS LOCATED NEAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
ALOFT, A PV ANOMALY IS OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI WHERE A 500
MB CUTOFF LOW IS BASED. WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS FEATURE
AND A WEAK RIBBON OF VORTICITY MAY GENERATE VERY WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS VERY LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WITH MINIMAL TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SFC
HIGH DEPARTURE AND DEVELOPING WYOMING SFC LOW INDUCING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 800 MB, TAPPING INTO A
WEAK 15-20 KT LLJ. WINDS RELAX INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OMEGA UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL DOMINATE A LARGE PORTION OF THE US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS TWO MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOWS, ONE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE SECOND
OVER THE ARIZONA/FOUR CORNERS AREA, SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THESE AREAS.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP QUELL ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE OMEGA PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE 500 MB SOUTHWEST US CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NBM BRINGS POPS BACK AS A RESULT TUESDAY EVENING (15-20%)
ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND SOUTH, BUT UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN HOW
LIKELY ANY PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP AS SOUNDINGS DON'T APPEAR TO SHOW
MUCH DEEP LAYER SATURATION. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING ACHIEVE DEEP LAYER SATURATION,
WITH NBM PAINTING WIDESPREAD 30 TO 50% POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTH
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIP
AMOUNTS GO, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, WHILE AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM SOUNDINGS, SO A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SEVERE WEATHER IS REALLY LOW. SOME OF THE EURO ENSEMBLE
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES SHOW LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE OF SOME
SEVERE THREAT, BUT GEFS BASED CIPS AND CSU PROBABILITIES SEEM TO
DISAGREE AND SHOW NO SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE HELPING
SUPPRESS POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, BUT WILL ALSO SEE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A 1000-500 MB THERMAL RIDGE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS FOR THOSE DAYS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO/KG
AVIATION...MEAD
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