898
FXUS63 KOAX 040728
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
228 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (25-50%) RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- CLEAR CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ESTABLISHING A BLOCKING PATTERN. ANOTHER
CUTOFF LOW IS DEVELOPING AND STALLING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
RESULTING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT A
SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO ISOLATED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 15-20 MPH. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT, FEATURING MOSTLY CLEAR AND SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY AND BEYOND)
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S TUESDAY AS A
NARROW THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW SLOWLY
TREKS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS REMAIN IN THE 25-50% RANGE BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOST GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEP TOTAL QPF BELOW 0.25". SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL HOLD NEAR AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BY THE LATE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN, SUPPORTING CONTINUED
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND AS THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK (VALID MAY
11-17) IS PROJECTING TEMPERATURES LIKELY (60-70% CHANCE) ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MEAD
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