371
FXUS63 KOAX 042316
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ENJOYABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
- POPS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH (15-20%) AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY (20-50%) BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE TO NO POP THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE OMEGA PATTERN NICELY AT 300 MB
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO NOTABLE PV ANOMALIES: ONE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND OVER THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE AREA WHERE THE
CLOSED LOWS ARE BASED. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
CONTINUE TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. CLOSER TO HOME, 19Z RAP
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH IS RESULTING IN OUR PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO STRONGER 850 MB
FLOW IS OBSERVED. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO 15-25 MPH GUSTS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S, WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY'S LOWS DUE TO SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW.
MONDAY WILL STILL SEE SOME INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS OUR
SERVICE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND SOME BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S AREAWIDE AND MAY REACH 80F OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH CLOUD COVER STEADILY INCREASING LATE
MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY EJECT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK, LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN RESULTS IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY DESPITE HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS TO A
WEAK 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE. SYNOPTIC SCALE Q-VECTORS INDICATE
CONVERGENCE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE BEST KINEMATIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. NBM DOES SHOW POPS (15-20%) RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY EVENING, BUT THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO CONFIRM THIS
WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SATURATION OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS RESULTS IN NBM BRINGING 20 TO 50% POP CHANCES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
MID-LEVEL FORCING LINGERS INTO THURSDAY AS DO POPS WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. POP CHANCES END BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AS FAR AS RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS, ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED SO WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A
DROUGHT BUSTER. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IS SEEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO
SOME THUNDER IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING TO SEE
SEVERE WEATHER.
WITH THE CLOSED LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD, RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND MOVES EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP US DRY WITH NBM SHOWING UNMENTIONABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN STARTING FRIDAY AS THE 1000-
500 MB THERMAL RIDGE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE
OAX FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 12 KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO/MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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