164
FXUS63 KOAX 051129
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS TWO 500 MB CUTOFF LOWS
OVER THE CONUS IN AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. THE FIRST IS
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, EFFECTIVELY STALLING THE
SECOND LOW POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES, OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS
STRETCHING FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH IOWA AND MISSOURI, EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, EXPECTED ANOTHER CALM
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID- 70S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AS A NARROW 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND
ALLOW THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. POPS
ENTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AT 20-40% AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS PERIOD INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WHICH MAY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. POPS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING AT 30-50%,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. MODEST INSTABILITY, ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE, MAY SUPPORT A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIMITED. MOST ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STRUGGLE TO PUSH PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-80, WHILE
GEFS MEMBERS EXTEND LIGHT PRECIPITATION A FEW ROWS OF COUNTIES
FURTHER NORTH. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A 60% PROBABILITY OF
TOTAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.10" ALONG THE EASTERN NEBRASKA-
KANSAS BORDER, DECREASING TO AROUND 25% ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE LOW 70S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THURSDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW BEINGS TO PULL AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW (POPS 20-50%).
LONG TERM (FRIDAY AND BEYOND)
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY
RENEWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. EXPECT
MOSTLY CALM, CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, AS THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
(VALID MAY 12-18) INDICATES AT 60-70% LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
5-10 KT OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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