333
FXUS63 KOAX 051933
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
233 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES (15-40%) RETURN WEDNESDAY, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN REPEATING AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
- ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THERE ARE SUNNY SKIES, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-70S BUT I'M INSIDE READING ABOUT MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY LOBES. IT'S A PLEASANT DAY FOR THOSE WHO CAN GET
OUTDOORS. WINDS ARE A BIT BREEZIER FOR POINTS EAST AND NORTH OF
THE OMAHA METRO.
THE H5 PATTERN REVEALS A REX BLOCK WITH A CLOSED LOW SPINNING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER DIGGING OVER SOCAL. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE NEAR SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI LEAVES
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 9 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, EXPECT TEMPS TO SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S.
TUESDAY
THE REX BLOCK DOESN'T LAST ALL THAT LONG AS BOTH UPPER LOWS
SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THE WESTERN LOW JOURNEYS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BLOCK OUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOLAR ENERGY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND HAVE CUT POPS TO 10% OR LESS AS A
RESULT.
EXPECT LOWS AND HIGHS TO RESEMBLE THOSE OF MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER THE CLOUDS, TUESDAY NIGHT'S TEMPS WILL
HOLD ONTO ABOUT TEN DEGREES MORE THAN DID THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF NIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE SYNCING UP WITH A DIVING EASTERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES US TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED/SCATTERED
POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH LESS THAN 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE,
SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OR PEA SIZED HAIL.
THE NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY AND ODDS FAVOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES REMAINING THAT WAY, TOO. (THE SUMMER DROUGHT
OUTLOOK ALSO LEANS DRY WITH DROUGHT EXPANSION FORECAST.) HIGH
TEMPS WILL REACH HIGHER HIGHS IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD
EXTENT AND SHOWER COVERAGE ARE LESS WIDESPREAD.
THE WEEKEND
SKIES CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ON AVERAGE, MID-MAY BRINGS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID-70S, BUT A WARMING ATMOSPHERE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAVE
MOTHER'S DAY 2025 IN THE 80S. AFTER THE MINOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLOUD-FREE SKIES. VERY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SLIGHT VEERING OF WINDS AT OMA IS LIKELY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CLF
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