929
FXUS63 KOAX 061103
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
603 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES (15-40%) RETURN WEDNESDAY, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN REPEATING AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
- ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TODAY:
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING, BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TEXAS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING THE REGION ARE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DIRECTLY ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM
THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY
KEEPING WEATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS
MORNING, BUT WE'LL SEE INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST STARTS TO DEEPEN,
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA.
TONIGHT:
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA TO
WEDNESDAY AS WE SEE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR GOING INTO TONIGHT. WE
SEE THE MID-LEVELS START TO SATURATE NEAR THE KANSAS STATE LINE
OVERNIGHT, WITH 15-18% POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT BARELY CLIPPING
JEFFERSON COUNTY. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP IN THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE OMEGA BLOCK STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS
PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW SLIDES NORTH OF THE REMNANT TROUGH CREATING THAT CLASSIC
"BACKWARDS S" SHAPE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
AS THE TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, WE SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION BRING
LOW RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA, NORTH OF THE LOW. INSTABILITY WILL
ONLY BE MARGINAL AS WE DON'T SEE STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION, MEANING ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MORE LIKELY WON'T
EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE DO SEE 15-20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. THIS CERTAINLY ISN'T A SCENARIO WHERE WE'LL HAVE ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (NEAR ZERO).
BECAUSE WE'LL BE ADVECTING IN MOISTURE AFTER MUCH OF IT RAINS
OUT ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WE'LL SEE
UP HERE WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. MANY LIKELY WILL
ONLY SEE A TRACE OR NO RAIN AT ALL. BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING RAIN WILL BE SOUTH NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI STATE
LINES.
OTHER THAN THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL BE
SOCKED IN ON WEDNESDAY WHETHER YOU SEE RAIN OR NOT, WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BACK OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND WE SEE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE REX BLOCK WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN WARMER, DRY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL
INTO THE 80S, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW THE FORECAST
INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S FOR SOME BY SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE RIDGE'S BEST EFFORT INITIALLY, THE REMNANT TROUGH
REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ACTUALLY WHAT WILL HELP KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA AS IT KEEPS THE STRONGEST WARM-AIR ADVECTION OFF TO OUR
WEST. AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, WE SEE THE REX BLOCK FINALLY
BREAK DOWN WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING BACK AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN, SUPPORTIVE OF THE RETURN OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SEVERE
WEATHER.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES STAYING
IN THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER. MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS UTILIZING THE GEFS SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK, INITIALLY HIGHLIGHTING
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY (MAY 14TH-16TH)
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE EAST TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ABOVE 20,000FT. WINDS
WILL RELAX BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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