934
FXUS63 KOAX 071745
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CHANCES PEAKING AT 20-40%. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH MOST SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
- A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY (20-30%) NEAR THE
KANSAS STATE LINE BEFORE EXITING IN THE EVENING.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
TODAY - THURSDAY:
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS JUST BARELY PUSHING NORTH OF THE
KANSAS STATE LINE. RADAR SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LOW CLOUDS, BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DON'T INDICATE THAT
ANYTHING IS LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET. JUST IN CASE,
WE DO HAVE 15-20% POPS ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
A COMPLEX BOUNDARY PATTERN IS SETTING UP TODAY AS WE SEE THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE REX BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A REX
BLOCK IS DEFINED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PUSHED NORTH
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ESSENTIALLY LOCKING UP THE OVERALL
FLOW REGIME WITH A BACKWARDS "S" SHAPE. NEBRASKA IS LOCATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR THE SURFACE,
WE SEE A BOUNDARY SPANNING THE STATE OF NEBRASKA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN POTENTIAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS MORNING WE STILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS KEEPING US DRY. AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE MOISTURE ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING INCREASED (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20-40%
CHANCE).
TO THE NORTH, THAT BOUNDARY MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING ANOTHER BAND OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A
REGION MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
MOISTURE WILL BE QUESTIONABLE, SO RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS BAND
ARE LOW AS WELL, ONLY 20-35 PERCENT. WHAT WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY IS VIRGA SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW REACHING THE
GROUND, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET A STRONGER UPDRAFT TO DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM. IN ANY CASE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULDN'T
SUPPORT ANY STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI, WEAKENING THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH INTO
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 (WARMEST NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNEST). WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLE,
BUT NOMINAL AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY, AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
OVER MISSOURI WILL BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP. THESE CHANCES
WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET BRINGING AN END TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THIS WEEK. NONE OF THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL LIKELY BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BEST CHANCE IS IF WE SEE A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO DEVELOP WHICH COULD BRING UP TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO THAT
LOCATION.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI IS FORCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE DELTA REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FROM THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN CONUS UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE THE LOW PULLS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MISSOURI AND IOWA. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OF THESE TWO AIR MASSES, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S ACROSS OUR REGION. WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID- TO-UPPER 80S WILL BE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. IF THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, WE COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK WE SEE THE REX BLOCK FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY MIDWEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK
ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTAIN AN E'RLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST TIMEFRAME, WITH PERIODS OF VARIABILITY OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW (< 30%) TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (20-30%) LATER IN THE PERIOD, BUT MAY
SCATTER OUT FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page