057
FXUS63 KOAX 072319
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES
PEAKING AT 20-30% AND MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.
- A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY (15-20%) NEAR THE
KANSAS STATE LINE BEFORE EXITING IN THE EVENING.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXTENDING NORTH TO THE NE/KS BORDER.
FARTHER NORTH, A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED WEST TO
EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE, THROUGH NORTHEAST NE, AND INTO
IA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. OVERALL, SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO A
WHOLE LOT WITH LUCKY ONES GETTING ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.
THAT BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST, SO ONLY HAVE SOME 15-20% CHANCES ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER,
SO MOST LIKELY WE'RE REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ONCE AGAIN.
WE SHOULD STAY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DO LOOK LIKE THEY'LL PICK UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, WITH GUSTS . IN ADDITION,
AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
MID 20S, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE. AS A
RESULT, VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY (GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF US
HIGHWAY 81). THESE CONCERNS COULD LAST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS AND GIVES US SOME PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER, STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD ON WHEN EXACTLY
THIS HAPPENS AND THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, SO OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
A STEADY INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MID TO UPPER 80S, POSSIBLY 90 BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP
ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CAMS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, BEING NEAR
THE KOMA AREA AROUND 04-08Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, AND INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY, GENERALLY
REMAINING UNDER 12KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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