890
FXUS63 KOAX 081053
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO SUNNY, WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PAGE COUNTY THIS MORNING, AS
SEEN ON RADAR. SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG
A BOUNDARY FROM YORK TO PAGE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE,
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
WE'LL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH A
SUNNY, WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL
AGAIN WARM INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REX BLOCK OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD LOUISIANA AS A SECOND RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER CLEAR AND
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY WARMING TO AROUND 90. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO BUILD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, WHICH HAS TRENDED
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN LATEST RUNS.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN COMPLETELY
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACNW TRANSITIONING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING IN A LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
ADVECTION OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR 90 DEGREE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY AS WE SEE
A SURFACE LOW START TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A THE SAME TIME,
BREEZY, DRY WINDS COULD LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FIRE
CONDITIONS EACH DAY SUNDAY-TUESDAY. GOOD NEWS IS MUCH OF OUR
AREA IS NOW FAIRLY GREEN WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE STILL SUSCEPTIBLE.
THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE REGION WILL START ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AS OF RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MUCH CAN STILL
CHANGE AS THE BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN PLAYS OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY AREAS OF
HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ABOVE 10,000 FT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. TAFS ARE THREE-LINERS
DUE TO SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION, BUT NO CATEGORICAL IMPACTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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