341
FXUS63 KOAX 090752
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
FIRE DANGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANCE (15-35%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE AND COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A REX-TYPE
BLOCK BY SUNDAY. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT PATTERN, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES WILL DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF THE
SD-NE BORDER BY THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF POSITIVE
BUOYANCY. AS SUCH, A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THE TENDENCY FOR BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL STATES WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 80S. BY SUNDAY, A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AFTERNOON RH 18-20% TO CREATE VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HARTINGTON TO
COLUMBUS WHERE GREEN UP HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE LACK OF SPRING
RAINFALL.
NEXT WEEK:
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH
THOSE FEATURES EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED, GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND WILDFIRE CONCERNS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. IT WILL REMAIN DRY, AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-35% POPS)
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. VARIOUS
GEFS-BASED MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE INDICATE AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THAT TIME, SO THAT'S SOMETHING
WE WILL BE MONITORING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...KG
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