922
FXUS63 KOAX 270437
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (75-100% CHANCE)
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.15 AND 1.00 INCH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TOMORROW)
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A POSITIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WITH TWO EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA, ONE STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, AND ANOTHER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, A SEPARATE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST AND FUSE WITH THE EXISTING SYSTEM,
RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWEST
IA INTO TUESDAY. AS OF 2 PM, RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING.
POPS RANGE FROM 75-100%. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY ALREADY REACHING THEIR HIGH AS OF 2 PM. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEAST NE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
POPS REMAIN ELEVATED (50-80%) THROUGH THE MORNING, DECREASING TO
15-30% BY MIDDAY. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH HIGHS WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN THE 60S.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.10"
TO 0.50", WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST NE AND
THE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST NE NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND)
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED
TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAINFALL. POPS
PEAK AT 20-40% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER, WHERE UP TO 0.50" IS
POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS TAPER OFF NORTH-WARD, WITH TOTALS UNDER
0.10" EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, WARMING INTO THE MID-70S ON
THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON FRIDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE DEPARTING LOW COULD SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A BRIEF ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. POPS CURRENTLY REMAIN UNDER 20%.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID JUNE 2-8)
FAVORS ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 33-50% RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY HAVEN'T SLIPPED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED, SO THIS TAF
UPDATE HAS BROUGHT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS UP JUST A BIT. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS AT LNK AND OFK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 1.5
MILES, THOUGH HAVE LEFT VISIBILITY MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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