277
FXUS63 KOAX 271846
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
146 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING
OFF- AND-ON LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
LESS THAN 0.25" OF RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEPARTING VORTICITY MAXIMUM HAS LED TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. AS OF 1 PM,
RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES A FEW LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 60S TODAY,
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE A LARGE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BRING STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY HIGHS TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. POPS INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PEAKING AT 25-50% DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
SUPPORTED BY APPROXIMATELY 250 J/KG OF MLCAPE; HOWEVER, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
LIMITED, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NE, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE NE/KS BORDER WHERE TOTALS MAY REACH 0.25". SUNSHINE WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK INTO
THE 70S.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY AND BEYOND)
AS THE WORK WEEK CONCLUDES, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH THE MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SOME LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE, EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE DEPARTING LOW, MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS COULD TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION, ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
IS LIMITED WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE-THIRD OF GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DISPLAYING A QPF SIGNAL. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW 20%
FOR NOW.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SETUP MAY USHER IN A MORE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN, WITH GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE BASED MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT A BROAD AREA OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAIN LOW IN THIS EXTENDED TIME
FRAME, BUT THE PATTERN WILL BEAR WATCHING IN THE DAYS TO COME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
GENERALLY MVFR TO SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES. PATCHY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND
IMPROVE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KLNK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FOG IMPACTING KOMA AT THIS TIME. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 12-14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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