711
FXUS63 KOAX 281741
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING
OFF-AND-ON LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 0.10" ARE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIPPED IN
THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
PREVAILED. ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS, LOWS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S. EXPECT FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL THIS MORNING, BEFORE
ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE LESS EXTENSIVE IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, GIVEN THAT THE MORE ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS FINAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS
SOUTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH ML CAPE
GENERALLY UNDER 250 J/KG, PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE STORM CHANCES.
HOWEVER A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 0.10" TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA,
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO MIDWEEK, REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 70S BY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBS SHOW ONLY ABOUT 20% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN, WHERE, OR IF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP,
POPS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE, MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MACHINE LEARNING PROBS ARE
BEGINNING TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUR WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SOME MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OFK AND WITH ANY SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING A
GIVEN TAF SITE IS LOW, SO ONLY WENT WITH TEMPO -SHRA MENTION AT
EACH SITE. PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY LATE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY REMAIN JUST WEST OF OFK, SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS (OUTSIDE OF STORMS).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA
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