504
FXUS63 KOAX 282039
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. THIS WAS BRINGING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SD INTO NORTHEAST NE WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NE. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE
RAIN SHIELD TO OUR WEST IS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIP PLACES SOUTH OF
I-80 IN OUR AREA. WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS, A FEW MAY PRODUCE
FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOW END NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO VALUES LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH
TORNADOES THEMSELVES APPEAR UNLIKELY. THE LOW WILL START TO OPEN
UP ON THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST, BUT WE'LL STILL BE
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, SO ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SOME SPOTTY
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH FUNNELS
POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
US. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OR NEAR THE AREA
AND BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN HOW FAR WEST
OR EAST THIS WAVE WILL BE, SO FAR NOW JUST HAVE SOME 15-20%
CHANCES. OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EDGING EASTWARD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 80S BOTH DAYS,
WITH A FEW SPOTS PERHAPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 ON SUNDAY.
THE QUIETER WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT'LL LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON MONDAY, BUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND LOOKS TO GIVE US A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WORKWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
EXACT TIMING OF ANY SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY PASSAGES THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT THERE DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO YIELD SOME SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. VARIOUS MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER ALGORITHMS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE AREA
WITH AT LEAST A 5% CHANCE EACH OF THESE DAYS, AND SOME EVEN
CONTINUE THESE CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, STILL
LOTS OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT, BUT YOU'LL DEFINITELY WANT TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SOME MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OFK AND WITH ANY SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING A
GIVEN TAF SITE IS LOW, SO ONLY WENT WITH TEMPO -SHRA MENTION AT
EACH SITE. PRECIP SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY LATE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY REMAIN JUST WEST OF OFK, SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS (OUTSIDE OF STORMS).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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