994
FXUS63 KOAX 291804
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
104 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT FUNNEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND HIGHS IN
THE 80S.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
TODAY...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ONCE AGAIN AS
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH THE RISING SUN.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL FINALLY ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY, BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING ONE LAST PUSH OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING LOW THIS MORNING. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS
A LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THE
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER,
INCREASING 0-3 KM CAPE, LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND STEEPENING 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE PESKY FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH
THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, THE CHANCES OF
ANY OF THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS REACHING THE GROUND IS VERY LOW. IN
ADDITION TO THE FUNNELS, A COUPLE OF CAMS DO HINT AT SOME GUSTIER
WINDS (30-35KTS) WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY, REACHING THE INTO
THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (15-20%).
OUR WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
BEHIND THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE, MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MACHINE LEARNING PROBS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE GREATEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DAYS TO HONE IN ON THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL, BUT IT'S STILL WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIDWEEK STORMS.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ON MONDAY. TEMPS THEN GRADUALLY COOL INTO 70S
AND LOW 80S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS AT 12-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOW- LEVEL CLOUDS AT FL035-060 ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-20% CHANCE) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. LOW COVERAGE IN THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAS LED THEM TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED. WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...WOOD
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